Alliance in danger? How Trump's threats against Greenland challenge Nato
Trump's statements regarding Greenland could even jeopardize the existence of the international military alliance NATO. Experts warn that Russia and China could end up benefiting from the internal dispute.
08.01.2026, 21:59
dpa
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- US President Donald Trump's threats are also challenging NATO and could potentially jeopardize the existence of the military alliance.
- In the worst-case scenario, there is a threat of armed conflict between two NATO members - an "unlikely event with serious consequences should it occur", according to experts.
- According to experts, China and Russia in particular could benefit from the internal NATO conflict.
With his threats against Greenland, US President Donald Trump has presented the international military alliance NATO with a new challenge that may even jeopardize its existence. The alliance, which is designed to fend off external threats, could now have to deal with an armed confrontation between alliance partners involving its most powerful member, the USA.
The White House has said that the Trump administration is weighing options to take control of Greenland. The strategically located, resource-rich island is a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, another Nato member state.
Nato was founded in 1949 with the aim of countering the threat to European security posed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War. NATO usually focuses on threats from Russia or international terrorist groups. Without US leadership and military might, NATO would be unable to function. Trump has now jeopardized the future of the alliance with his threats.
An internal military conflict is not on the cards
In principle, Nato, the world's largest security alliance, follows a motto like that of the "Three Musketeers": "One for all and all for one." The NATO members promise that as soon as one of them is attacked, there will be a response from all other members. The security guarantee is enshrined in Article 5 of the NATO founding treaty and has helped to ensure that Russia has not made any incursions into territory that is part of NATO.
But if one NATO member attacks another, the effect of Article 5 is over. Nato allies and neighbors Greece and Turkey have been conspicuous for decades by harassing each other's military and fighting over borders. But internal disputes have never posed as great a threat to the unity of Nato as an invasion of Greenland by the USA would.
Trump warned the other Nato members on Wednesday of the alleged consequences of the USA leaving the alliance: "Russia and China have zero fear of Nato without the United States," he wrote in capital letters in a post on social media. But he added: "We will always be there for NATO, even if it won't be there for us."
Threats against Greenland reach new level
The White House stepped up its threats against Greenland on Tuesday. It issued an official statement saying that the island was "a national security priority". The Trump administration also refused to rule out the use of military force.
"The President and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy objective, and of course the use of the US military is always an option available to the Commander-in-Chief," the statement said.
NATO expert Ian Lesser from the think tank German Marshall Fund of the United States called the White House's statement "very perplexing". "It would be an unlikely, momentous event should it occur. But the probabilities have changed and therefore it becomes more difficult to simply dismiss this as bluster from the White House," he said.
Statement followed statement of solidarity from European states
The statement from Washington followed a show of solidarity from the heads of state and government of Germany, the UK, France, Italy, Poland and Spain, who joined Denmark in defending Greenland's sovereignty. "It is up to Denmark and Greenland, and them alone, to decide on matters concerning Denmark and Greenland," said a joint statement by the heads of state and government on Tuesday. Canada, which lies off the west coast of Greenland, also expressed its support.
The NATO leadership itself has so far been reluctant to make a statement that could anger its most important member. However, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen points out that the US threat must be taken seriously, especially after Trump had the head of state Nicolás Maduro captured in an overnight attack on Venezuela. Frederiksen says any attempt by the US to take control of Greenland could mean the end of Nato.
When asked whether Frederiksen was right that a US attack on another Nato country would mean the end of the alliance, Nato said that the alliance "does not speculate on hypotheses". A source who wished to remain anonymous referred instead to the strategic importance of Greenland. "The Arctic is an important region for our collective security and NATO has a clear interest in maintaining security, stability and cooperation in the High North. Together we will ensure that the entire Alliance is protected."
Trump's threats distract from efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine
Trump's orientation towards Greenland threatens to destabilize NATO at a time when the US-led efforts to end the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine have reached an important phase. In doing so, he is distracting NATO members from efforts to support Ukraine and provide the country with security guarantees.
The credibility of NATO is at stake, said analyst Maria Martisiute from the European Policy Center think tank. If one leading Nato member undermines another, this "damages the cohesion and credibility of Nato and only serves our opponents such as Russia and China", said Martisiute.
Tensions after concessions to Trump
Last summer, the NATO heads of state and government backed Trump's demand to increase their defense spending. With the exception of Spain, they agreed to spend as much per capita on defense as the USA within a decade.
Shortly before Christmas, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Trump as a savior: "I fundamentally believe that Nato is stronger than it has ever been thanks to Donald J. Trump," Rutte told BBC radio. "Nato has never been as strong as it is now since the fall of the Berlin Wall."
But in a speech at the end of the year, Rutte warned of further attacks by Russia within Europe in a few years if Moscow wins in Ukraine. "The conflict is on our doorstep," said Dutch ex-Prime Minister Rutte. "Russia has brought war back to Europe and we must be prepared for the scale of war that our grandparents or great-grandparents suffered."
NATO expert Lesser said it was hard to reconcile Trump's victory on defense spending with his plans for Greenland. "What good is it to have revitalized Nato's capabilities if it is no longer a viable political alliance?" he asked. If Nato were to disintegrate, two governments would be happy: "It's a gift to Moscow and it's a gift to Beijing."
