"Iran will hold out for months" How US intelligence agencies dismantle Trump's big Hormuz bluff
Donald Trump is celebrating the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a historic success. But according to a secret CIA report, Iran can hold out economically and militarily for months to come.
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- CIA contradicts Trump: US intelligence agencies assume that Iran can withstand the blockade for another three to four months.
- Missile arsenal remains large: According to the CIA, Tehran still has around 70 percent of its missiles and 75 percent of its mobile launchers.
- Regime shows toughness: According to the intelligence service, the Iranian leadership is now even more determined to sit out the pressure from the USA - even at the expense of its own population.
For US President Donald Trump, the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unsurprisingly a complete success, as the Washington Post reports. "The navy has done an incredible job. What they have accomplished ... is like a steel wall. Nobody can get through it," he said on Wednesday. The Iranian economy is "collapsing", the currency is "worthless" and the country "can't pay its troops", Trump had already claimed the day before.
However, the US intelligence services have a completely different assessment of the situation, writes the Washington Post, citing anonymous sources from a confidential CIA analysis. According to four officials familiar with the matter, Iran could withstand the US blockade for another three to four months before the country suffers serious economic damage.
Iran remains more powerful than expected
Trump's optimism that he will be able to end his war with Iran quickly has been severely dampened by this sober assessment. In addition, according to the CIA, Tehran still has considerable stocks of ballistic missiles. According to the CIA, the mullahs still have 75 percent of their mobile launchers and 70 percent of their missiles at their disposal compared to pre-war levels.
The regime has been able to restore underground storage facilities and put them into operation. In addition, damaged missiles have been repaired and some new ones have even been assembled.
Nevertheless, a high-ranking CIA employee emphasized that although the blockade was not completely ineffective, there could be no talk of an overwhelming military victory for the USA at the moment. No matter how often Trump and his confidants such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have been invoking it for weeks. Especially as Iran continues to reject all demands to stop uranium enrichment, hand over its uranium reserves and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The mullahs can hold out for a long time
A CIA official confirmed to the Washington Post that Iran could survive economic restrictions for longer than even the intelligence services had assumed. "The leadership has become more radical and determined," the source is quoted as saying.
The mullahs are increasingly confident that they can survive the political will of the US and maintain repression at home to contain any resistance in Iran, the CIA estimates. And last but not least, there are enough examples of similar regimes surviving for years under sustained embargoes and air strikes.
