Mayor in custody Imamoglu's case is reminiscent of Erdogan's path to power

The careers of Turkish President Erdogan and Istanbul Mayor Imamoglu show astonishing parallels. Erdogan was also imprisoned as an opposition figure. And found his way to power.

One day before the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, was picked up by a large police contingent, the university of Turkey's largest city had already revoked the politician's university degree.

This would have ruled him out of running for the office of Turkish president. In Turkey, a university degree is a prerequisite for holding the highest office in the state.

The incumbent President Recep Erdogan knows this rule well, as it is repeatedly questioned whether he has actually successfully completed a university degree. Not everyone is convinced by the documents presented.

Supporting terror and corruption

But back to the arrest, which is far more serious for Ekrem Imamoglu. Observers in the international press agree that it is no coincidence that this took place a few days before Imamoglu was expected to be elected as the opposition party CHP's candidate for the next presidential election. In opinion polls, he has higher popularity ratings than President Erdodgan, who will not be allowed to stand in the next election anyway unless the constitution is amended.

If the intention behind this is indeed to put an end to the Istanbul native's political rise, then those responsible are clearly not doing things by halves.

Ali Sonay is an assistant lecturer at the University of Bern in the Department of Middle East and Muslim Societies. He explains to blue News that previous decisions by the government could be evidence of influence in the legal processes.

As examples, he cites the annulment of Imamoglu's first election as mayor of Istanbul in 2019 and the arrests of other CHP mayors and media representatives in recent months. Last but not least, the timing of the current development, shortly before the opposition party's primary elections, is an indication. However, Sonay qualifies this as mere conjecture.

The offenses that the public prosecutor's office accuses Imamoglu of are serious: supporting a terrorist group, meaning the Kurdish PKK, as well as corruption. More specifically: the manipulation of public tenders.

David Barthelt, head of the Heinrich Böll Foundation's Istanbul office, told ARD's Tagesschau program that the accusation of supporting terrorism is based on the equation "Kurd equals terrorist". According to this logic, anyone who supports a Kurdish party also supports terrorism. "The prisons in Turkey are full of people who have been imprisoned precisely because of this equation," says the Turkey expert.

Ali Sonay confirms that many people in Turkey have little trust in their country's justice system and see it as politicized.

Over 100 opposition members arrested

While the EU, French and German governments reacted with critical statements just hours after the arrest, official Switzerland took more time. The day after the police raid, the Swiss ambassador in Istanbul, Muriel Peneveyre, commented in a post on X: The arrest of Ekrem Imamoglu and many others is worrying and a challenge to democracy in Turkey. The obligations and values of the European Convention on Human Rights and the OSCE must be respected.

Along with Imamoglu, around 100 other people have been arrested, including the mayors of two Istanbul districts, according to Amnesty International. According to MDR's "Tagesschau", all of them are members of the CHP or support it.

In 2022, a court sentenced Ekrem Imamoglu to two years and seven months in prison for insulting people. This is accompanied by a ban on holding political office. The mayor of Istanbul has appealed, which is why the verdict is still not legally binding.

Thousands demonstrate despite ban

One day after Imamoglu was taken away by the police, the public prosecutor's office in Istanbul announced that the Turkish state had confiscated the construction company owned by Ekrem Imamoglu. This is on the basis of "investigation reports on financial crime", as the "Handelsblatt" writes.

Sonay emphasizes that the legal proceedings against Imamoglu are not over. "The legal process to challenge the decisions continues - including the revocation of the university diploma."

The Turkish government has declared a four-day ban on demonstrations in Istanbul, closed roads and restricted public transport connections. Nevertheless, in the hours following the wave of arrests, thousands demonstrated against the arrests and against President Erdogan - not only in Istanbul, but also in Ankara, Antalya, Izmir, Adana and other cities.

The Turkish state is also cracking down on digital protests. Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya writes on X that 37 social media users have been arrested for "inciting the public to resentment and hostility" and for inciting criminal offenses. A total of 261 account administrators, 62 of whom lived abroad, were identified as having made posts, he continued.

Shortly after Imamoglu's arrest, access to social media was already restricted. According to Turkish cyber rights activist Yaman Akdeniz, the bandwidth of the platforms had been restricted. According to DPA, users and media have been reporting since Wednesday that portals are only partially accessible and hardly accessible at all.

Is Istanbul under threat of forced administration?

In recent months, the Turkish judiciary has taken action against several elected mayors who belong to the pro-Kurdish DEM party. In November 2024, Der Spiegel reported on three ousted office holders. At the end of February 2025, the pro-Kurdish portal "ANF" News listed twelve municipalities whose mayors had been removed from office following the local elections in spring 2024. The cities were then placed under forced administration by the Turkish government.

Ekrem Imamoglu and two Istanbul district councillors who were also arrested can therefore also be seen as the latest examples of this series of arrests.

Commentators are already wondering whether the Erdogan government also intends to place Istanbul under forced administration. An opposition figure as mayor of Turkey's largest city has been a thorn in President Erdogan's side since his election.

And for good reason. Erdogan is known to have said: "Whoever controls Istanbul controls Turkey." He should know, after all, he himself was mayor of the metropolis on the Bosporus from 1994 to 1998.

Erdogan has shown the way: from prison to the highest office

And he has another thing in common with his rival Imamoglu. As mayor of Istanbul, Erdogan was also opposed by the government and sentenced to prison by a court.

The accusation against the then opposition politician: "Inciting the population to hatred and enmity with reference to differences of religion and race", as the German daily newspaper "Tageszeitung" quoted from the verdict. The old ruling elite, which had controlled Turkey since the days of republic founder Kemal Atatürk, was suspicious of the aspiring politician's clear Islamic references.

Erdogan served four months in 1999. In 2002, he won the elections as the leading candidate, but was unable to become prime minister because he was banned from politics - another parallel to Imamoglu.

The question now is whether Ekrem Imamoglu will succeed in doing the same - a political comeback from prison that ultimately sweeps away the old leadership. "In fact, like Erdogan, Imamoglu could also benefit from being perceived as a victim," confirms social scientist Sonay. It is quite possible that the CHP will declare Imamoglu its presidential candidate on Sunday despite his imprisonment.

Whether and under what conditions the politician will be released from prison, however, is currently completely open.