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A bridge on the road between Rudan and Bandar Abbas in southern Iran was damaged by a U.S. airstrike.
EPA ISNA NEWS AGENCY / HANDOUT / KEYSTONE
After the signing of the framework agreement, the international community was still hopeful that peace would be achieved between Tehran and Washington. But now the conflict threatens to escalate into a full-scale conflict.
"Great job": At the Palace of Versailles, Trump was still being celebrated by Emmanuel Macron for the signing of the framework agreement, he was still feted by Emmanuel Macron. After tough negotiations, a final agreement between Tehran and Washington was supposed to be reached within 60 days.
Yet just about five weeks later, the signs point more toward an escalating war than toward a lasting peace.
This marked the ninth consecutive night that the U.S. bombed targets in the Islamic Republic. According to the U.S. military, the strikes targeted military command centers, air defense and coastal surveillance facilities, missile and drone launch sites, and communications networks in Iran. By that point, Tehran had long since unilaterally declared the framework agreement suspended.
Tehran reported explosions in several parts of the country and responded with retaliatory strikes against Bahrain and Kuwait. For the first time since the early days of the conflict, the U.S. military reported on Saturday that soldiers had been killed as a result of Iranian shelling. They were killed during an operation in Jordan while U.S. forces were defending themselves against Iranian missile and drone attacks.
Meanwhile, shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz came to a near standstill due to the fighting, and the price of oil reached over $90 per barrel—its highest level since early June. The global energy crisis is thus continuing to worsen.
Iranian drones attacked U.S. targets in Jordan. (File photo)
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So is the Middle East at risk of a full-scale conflagration? Experts, at least, see a pivotal moment in the Iran conflict. “This is the moment when both sides need to wake up,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, to the “New York Times”, adding: “Either they take advantage of the diplomatic way out now, or they risk the war spiraling out of control beyond a limited escalation.”
"This escalation is rapidly intensifying and spiraling out of control," says Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iranian security issues at the University of Tennessee, the "Wall Street Journal". According to Golkar, there is a danger “that we will slip back into all-out war, even if neither side wants that.”
In any case, the U.S. continues to bolster its arsenal for further attacks. As both newspapers report in unison, citing U.S. officials, the military is, among other things, deploying F-16 fighter jets from the U.S. air base at Spangdahlem in the Eifel region to the Middle East. In addition, F-35 fighter jets are reportedly being sent from RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, a base used by the U.S. According to the reports, refueling aircraft are also on their way to the region.
The *Washington Post* also quoted an unnamed U.S. official as saying that the U.S. was preparing for a more extensive war. However, the official emphasized that, among other factors, dwindling U.S. weapons stockpiles would limit the scope of military operations in Iran. “We don’t have enough to sustain operations safely, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that.”
Meanwhile, Iran’s latest retaliatory strikes against U.S. troops show that, despite weeks of American attacks, Tehran still has sufficient military capabilities to strike even distant targets. After all, Jordan, a U.S. ally, is even farther from Iran than the U.S. targets in the Gulf states, which were also attacked.
But the stakes are high for both the Trump administration and the Iranian leadership. A further escalation of this unpopular war carries the risk that Trump’s Republicans will suffer massive losses in the upcoming midterm elections and lose their majorities in Congress. Once again, the price of oil is playing a key role. For the first time since mid-June, drivers are once again paying more than four dollars per gallon (3.785 liters) of gas. The drastic rise in fuel prices is just one reason why Trump’s Iran policy is extremely unpopular.
The Iranian economy, on the other hand, was already in such a dire state even before the conflict that nationwide protests were brutally crushed by the Revolutionary Guards.
“In any case, the conflict has now turned into a race against time and a war of attrition,” writes security expert Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) on X. Thus, the crucial question is “whether the deteriorating economic and infrastructural conditions in Iran will outweigh the rise in energy prices caused by the instability in the Strait of Hormuz—or vice versa.”
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Zeidon al-Kinani, director of the Arab Perspectives Institute, does not view the situation quite so critically, however. However, there is a threat of a “semi-permanent war” with constant attacks followed shortly thereafter by retaliatory strikes, as he /a>.
Amid the military escalation, diplomacy has at least not yet come to a standstill. According to reports from Tehran, diplomatic efforts with the U.S. are continuing despite the fighting, though no details were provided regarding the content of the talks.
Washington, too, continued to signal its willingness to engage in talks. “We are always open to diplomacy,” said U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio—provided that Tehran is willing to abide by any agreement reached. “We will continue to try. Should that door open, we would welcome it,” Rubio said.
But with every attack, the chance of reaching a negotiated settlement and turning things around diminishes. At present, however, there are many signs that Washington and Tehran will continue to let their weapons do the talking.
20.07.2026, 20:32
