Changing refugee routes Irregular migration to Europe has fallen by a third in 2025
New data shows how political changes in Syria, Mali and Tunisia are influencing migration to Europe. Despite the decline, there are routes that continue to be heavily frequented.
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- Frontex reports around 33,600 irregular border crossings for the first quarter of 2025 - a decrease of a third compared to the previous year.
- The reasons for the decline are the change of power in Syria, the calming of the situation in Mali, but also agreements between the EU and countries such as Morocco and Tunisia.
- In contrast, arrivals of refugees from Bangladesh have increased.
Irregular migration at the EU's external borders experienced a notable decline at the beginning of the year. According to the border protection agency Frontex, around 33,600 irregular border crossings were registered from January to March, which corresponds to a decrease of around a third compared to the previous year. This decline affects all major migration routes to Europe, writes the NZZ.
There are specific reasons for the decline.
Fall of the Assad regime in Syria
The decline on the Eastern Mediterranean route and the Western Balkans is mainly due to the decreasing number of Syrian migrants. In recent years, Syrians made up the majority of irregular refugees on these routes.
However, since the fall of the Assad regime in November 2024 and the subsequent suspension of asylum applications by the EU and Switzerland, the number of Syrian migrants has fallen sharply. Despite the ongoing instability in Syria, the number of Syrians arriving in the EU irregularly is lower than it was six years ago.
Fewer refugee boats from West Africa - despite the ongoing tense situation in Mali
Fewer refugees are also arriving in western Europe. Irregular migration from West Africa and Morocco to the Canary Islands peaked in 2024, driven by the escalation of violence in Mali following the withdrawal of the UN peacekeeping mission.
However, the number of Malian migrants has now fallen significantly. This is due to increased controls by Spain and Frontex as well as EU investment in the region. Increased surveillance and the difficult conditions on the Atlantic route are also contributing to the decline.
EU agreements with Tunisia and Morocco
Political agreements with Morocco and Tunisia have also contributed to the reduction in irregular migration. In return for financial support from the EU, Tunisia has tightened controls on its sea borders, which has led to a drastic reduction in irregular crossings by Tunisians.
As a result, not only are fewer people from sub-Saharan Africa arriving in Europe from Tunisia, but also significantly fewer Tunisians. Their number has fallen from 5,400 in August 2023 alone to 150 recently.
Flight across the Mediterranean continues - arrivals from Bangladesh rise sharply
Despite these developments, the central Mediterranean route remains busy. Migrants from Bangladesh in particular use this route to reach Europe. The number of arrivals from the South Asian country has doubled compared to the previous year.
Many of them travel to Italy via Egypt and Libya, lured by the hope of a better life, fueled by social media posts and supported by a growing diaspora in Italy.
The editor wrote this article with the help of AI.