Escalation between Israel and Iran Is a major war now looming?

Washington and Tehran were hoping for a diplomatic solution to the dispute over Iran's nuclear program. Now Israel attacks, Iran strikes back. Answers to the most important questions.

DPA

13.06.2025, 22:20

13.06.2025, 22:22

dpa

The situation in the region is more explosive than ever following the start of Israel's major attack on the nuclear facilities and other targets in Iran. The Islamic Republic is striking back with drone and missile attacks. The most important questions and answers on the situation:

Israeli President Izchak Herzog has justified the large-scale attack in Iran with an existential threat to the Jewish people. Israeli army spokesman Effie Defrin said that Israel had recently identified signs that Iran had made "significant progress towards nuclear capabilities". "The Iranian regime is galloping towards a nuclear bomb," he said. Iran had always denied this.

Intelligence information had shown that Tehran was operating a secret program, Defrin continued. As part of this program, Iranian nuclear scientists had carried out tests to advance it. He spoke of "clear evidence that the Iranian regime is striving to build a nuclear bomb in the near future".

The weakening of the Iranian "axis of resistance" certainly contributed to the decision to launch the attack - which had been under discussion for more than a decade. After more than 20 months of war in Gaza, the Islamist Hamas has been significantly decimated, as has the Lebanese Hezbollah. Since the uprising, Syria no longer serves as a corridor for Iranian arms supplies to Hezbollah. Following an Israeli attack last year, Iran's air defenses are also considered damaged.

The resolution of the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna was also noted with great attention in Israel. This formally stated that Iran was not fulfilling its legal obligations to cooperate with the IAEA. This was interpreted in Israel as a "yellow card" for Tehran. With regard to the major attack in Iran, Israel's military chief said that they were "at a point of no return". It was no longer possible to wait.

According to experts, Iran has worked for years to protect its nuclear facilities against the threat of military attacks, which makes complete destruction difficult. "The kind of concrete that (the Iranians) use is actually a very special, hardened concrete," said military analyst Cedric Leighton on US television station CNN.

It is unclear whether Israeli bombs could penetrate this type of concrete. "The Israelis would have to launch one wave of attacks after another," he explained.

According to experts, some nuclear facilities are also located deep underground. The Israeli air force has no B-2 and B-52 bombers capable of transporting the US ally's bunker-busting bombs, the US news site Axios reported. Such heavy bombs would probably be necessary to hit the underground uranium enrichment facility Fordo in Iran, it said.

According to Israeli media reports, the attack was accompanied by an operation by the foreign intelligence service Mossad. In the attack - especially in the killing of important Iranian commanders - Israel reportedly deployed secret service commandos deep inside Iran. The large-scale strike against Iran's nuclear facilities and military leadership had been prepared for years, several Israeli media outlets wrote, citing a source in the country's security forces.

To this end, units of the foreign intelligence service Mossad had already placed weapons, vehicles and drone bases near missile silos and air defense positions in the run-up to the attacks. These weapons systems were directed against their targets by remote control at the beginning of the air strikes.

For years, Iran has maintained a nuclear program with two uranium enrichment facilities and a nuclear power plant in the port city of Bushehr. The country also operates a research reactor near the capital Tehran and other facilities in the metropolis of Isfahan in the center of the country. Iran also operates a heavy water reactor in Arak in the west.

The West accuses the state of striving for nuclear weapons. Tehran denies this. According to an IAEA report, Tehran already has almost 409 kilograms of uranium with a purity level of 60 percent. A purity level of over 90 percent is required for nuclear weapons. Experts have repeatedly criticized the fact that this is not necessary for civilian purposes.

Washington and Tehran have been negotiating the Iranian nuclear program for almost two months. However, the talks have recently stalled due to considerable differences of opinion. The USA is demanding a complete halt to uranium enrichment, which Tehran regards as a red line.

A sixth round of talks was actually planned for Sunday, mediated by the Gulf state of Oman. According to observers, a meeting is extremely unlikely after the latest military escalation. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had only declared a deal acceptable if it led to the destruction of all nuclear facilities in Iran. US President Donald Trump has spoken out against an attack by Israel in Iran while negotiations are still ongoing.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi also warned Israel this week against an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. These are extremely well protected and it would require a "very destructive force to damage them", said Grossi. He made it clear that such an attack could backfire. According to him, an attack "could have an amalgamation effect that would, let me be very clear, strengthen Iran's resolve to seek a nuclear weapon or withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty." The top UN nuclear watchdog added that he was saying this because the Iranians had told him so.

Iran views Israel's attack as a declaration of war, according to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The country threatened Israel with further harsh reactions and carried out drone strikes as well as several waves of missile attacks on Friday evening.

There are fears that Iran's leadership could also order retaliatory strikes against US bases in the region. The USA, Israel's most important ally, reduced its embassy staff in Iraq this week for security reasons. US military bases in the Persian Gulf are not very far from Iran.

According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Israel's actions could not have taken place without the coordination and approval of the USA. Therefore, the US government, as Israel's main supporter, also shares responsibility for the consequences. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the leadership in Tehran: "Let me be clear: Iran should not attack US facilities or US personnel."

Iran exerts great influence in its neighboring country of Iraq, including through allied Shiite militias. The regional power also has missiles that can reach Israel's territory. Israel is also bracing itself for the possibility that Tehran's ally in Yemen, the Houthi militia, could intensify its attacks on Israel.

The pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia in Lebanon said that Israel was "massively endangering regional and international security, with potentially catastrophic consequences". The militia also accused the USA of being involved in the escalation. Without the "direct approval, coordination and support of the USA", the attack could never have taken place, it said.

In its major attack, Israel eliminated important generals from the army and the Revolutionary Guards. The commander of the air force, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, for example, was considered the architect of Iran's missile program in recent years and also oversaw the most recent attacks on Israel. This is likely to weaken Iran's ability to retaliate.