Is China exploiting Trump's Iran war?

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• Concerns are growing among the USA's Asian allies that Beijing could exploit the commitment of military resources in the Middle East.
• Parts of a missile defense system have already been moved from South Korea to the Middle East.
• Military units have also been transferred from Japan.
• As the USA has deployed more Patriot air defense missiles than it produces annually, Taiwan is now relying on domestically produced "Tien Kung" missiles

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Donald Trump's war against Iran is shaking Washington's relations with its allies worldwide. Even if his displeasure has so far been directed primarily at Europe and NATO, America's partners in Asia are watching developments with growing nervousness.

They are wondering whether interceptor missiles, warships and troops, which are actually used as a deterrent against China and North Korea, will be increasingly deployed to the Persian Gulf. This has already happened to some extent. Even more pressing, however, is the question of how reliable Washington's security guarantees are in an emergency.

The common rival China, of all countries, could benefit: the People's Republic is better prepared for an oil price shock than its US allies in the region thanks to its strategic reserves and, in some cases, Russian pipeline deliveries. The distracted USA could further fuel Beijing's already self-confident stance in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.

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Deep insecurity in South Korea

For decades, the alliance between Seoul and Washington was considered ironclad and untouchable on both sides. However, since Donald Trump's second term in office and especially since the start of the Iran war, deep uncertainty has spread in Seoul.

Like many NATO states, Trump has repeatedly accused South Korea of paying too little for American protection and taking advantage of the alliance. At the same time, he has repeatedly threatened to withdraw the approximately 28,500 US soldiers stationed in South Korea.

At the beginning of March, the Washington Post reported that the US army would move parts of a missile defense system stationed in South Korea to the Middle East. "We have expressed our opposition, but the reality is that we cannot fully enforce our position," said South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the time - without, however, officially confirming the withdrawal of US military equipment.

"Relying on the US is no longer possible after the Iran war," was the headline of a recent editorial in the left-leaning daily Hankyoreh. The extent of the uncertainty was also recently revealed in a representative survey by the Seoul-based think tank Asan Institute. According to the survey, only 64% of all South Koreans still consider the USA to be their most important security partner - compared to over 74% in the previous year.

"I never thought I would have to say this. But I think Korea needs to start shaping its future according to its own standards," said the now 98-year-old James Laney, who served as US ambassador in Seoul in the 1990s, recently about bilateral relations.

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Trump unsettles Japan

Although Japan is considered the closest US ally in the Indo-Pacific, it is not immune to provocations from Donald Trump. When Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi visited the US President at the White House in March, Trump irritated the Japanese head of government with a historical comparison to Pearl Harbor. The 79-year-old spoke about how the USA had used the element of surprise when attacking Iran.

"Who knows more about surprises than Japan?" asked Trump, causing laughter in the room. "Why didn't they tell me about Pearl Harbor?" Trump asked, addressing the Japanese. Japan had bombed the US base at Pearl Harbor in Hawaii on December 7, 1941.

However, Trump has not only unsettled the Japanese rhetorically. Japanese media have reported in recent weeks that several US military units have been relocated from the East Asian country to the Middle East. These include the USS Tripoli stationed in Sasebo with marines and other sailors on board. Two guided missile destroyers stationed in Yokosuka are now also operating in the Arabian Sea.

At the same time, there is a gap in the US aircraft carriers in the Indo-Pacific: the USS Abraham Lincoln has been withdrawn from the South China Sea and is now operating in the Middle East. This makes the USS George Washington the only US aircraft carrier stationed in Asia. However, it is currently undergoing maintenance in Yokosuka.

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Taiwan relies on its own missiles

The democratically governed island state, which China wants to annex by invasion if necessary, is dependent on US arms supplies, with which Washington supports Taiwan's defense. Taiwanese expert Su Tzu-yun considers the influence of the Iran war on the US presence in the Asia-Pacific region to be manageable. Overall, the US has not undertaken a large-scale withdrawal of frontline defense systems, says the director of the Research Institute for Defense Strategy and Resources.

According to Su, the war could have an impact on US arms sales to Taiwan in the medium and long term, but not in the short term. The expert pointed out that the USA used more Patriot missiles in the Iran war than it produces annually. For Taiwan, this underlines how important the domestically produced "Tien Kung" missiles are.

Taiwan has been experiencing military exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army on an almost daily basis for several years. The Iran war could easily affect Taiwanese confidence in the USA, says Su. However, the public has now also developed psychological resilience.