Paris in political crisis again Is France becoming ungovernable?

Macron struggles for control: new elections loom after the prime minister's withdrawal - and a possible gain in power for Le Pen's right-wing nationalists.

Keystone-SDA

07.10.2025, 06:24

07.10.2025, 06:38

SDA

With the surprising resignation of French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, President Emmanuel Macron has come under rapid pressure and the opposition is once again calling loudly for his resignation. However, Macron has now given himself some breathing space with an unexpected decision.

The president summoned the prime minister, whose resignation he had accepted at the Élysée Palace on Monday morning, to see him again in the afternoon. The task: Lecornu, who is still in charge, is to hold talks with the political forces on a way out of the crisis by Wednesday evening.

Macron must decide between a new prime minister and new elections

This has given Macron time, but no room for maneuver. Lecornu has already made it clear that he does not want to continue as prime minister, even if he succeeds in the "mission impossible". Macron will therefore have to start looking for a prime minister again by Thursday at the latest or dissolve parliament and call new elections.

The appointment of a new prime minister in itself does not guarantee political stability. This is because neither Macron's centrist alliance nor the left or right camps have a majority in the National Assembly. It has not yet been possible to form a coalition capable of governing. Since the early parliamentary elections in summer 2024, three prime ministers - including Lecornu - have failed as head of government.

New prime minister no guarantee of political stability

Whether it will be possible to govern with a divided parliament at the fourth attempt is questionable. Because no matter which camp a future prime minister comes from, he or she will quickly face a vote of no confidence from the competing blocs. Even if Macron were to heed the call of the Socialists and Communists to appoint a prime minister from the left after two failed center-right governments, he would not currently have a majority in parliament. France would remain difficult to govern and the beleaguered Macron would be under pressure.

Macron will "assume his responsibility" if Lecornu's final negotiations fail, according to sources close to the president on Monday evening. Macron had also recently ruled out the possibility of resigning. However, the announcement was interpreted to mean that Macron would then dissolve parliament and call new elections.

Macron is taking a risk with new elections

It is currently impossible to predict whether a new election will create clear conditions or whether the situation will become even more muddled. If a bloc other than Macron's centrist camp wins an absolute majority, Macron would de facto be forced to appoint a prime minister from their ranks. There would then be a so-called cohabitation. Macron's power would shrink significantly and the prime minister would become more important.

However, it is also conceivable that a new dissolution of parliament would not create clear conditions. Macron's calculation did not work out last year when he surprisingly called early parliamentary elections. This would threaten a further phase of political instability and even gridlock.

Le Pen could come to power

If Macron decides to hold new elections, he is likely to have the upcoming presidential election in mind, which is due in 2027 and in which moderates have long feared a victory for the right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen. Macron himself cannot run again after two terms in office. It is still unclear who the forces of the political center want to send into the race in his place.

It is also unclear whether Le Pen herself will be able to run. A court had imposed an election ban on the right-wing figurehead for embezzling EU funds and ordered the penalty to take effect immediately. Le Pen is defending herself against this in appeal proceedings. If she is unable to run, her party will probably nominate Le Pen's political offspring Jordan Bardella.

Macron is determined to prevent the Élysée from being handed over to the right-wing nationalists. For him, new elections are therefore also likely to be another attempt to keep the Rassemblement National down. Nevertheless, he could give them more power.