Questions and answers Is Kiev opening a second front on Russian territory?

Now Belgorod too: the Ukrainian army has once again crossed the border to Russia, military bloggers report. Here are four questions about the new front - including answers, as far as the fog of war allows.

The reports from the Miltiary bloggers are initially contradictory. They report that the Ukrainian armed forces are attacking border posts. One is said to be in Nekhoteevka, another in Zhuravlevka and a third outside Shebekino.

According to the Russian Telegram channel Mash, 300 enemy soldiers are deployed in front of Shebekino. There are said to be 200 near the border town of Nechoteevka. The Telegram channel Shot, on the other hand, writes of 60 men who advanced in eight armored vehicles at 8 am.

The governor of Belgorod has confirmed the fighting: The situation is "difficult, but under control", according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

Is it all just a distraction?

Could the whole thing simply be a diversion? It is possible that the Ukrainian army is conducting armed reconnaissance to test the strength of the enemy. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that a major attack is being faked in order to tie up the forces and attention of the Russian army.

But it is also quite conceivable that Kiev could open a new front on Russian territory on a permanent basis. However, it is still too early to make any definitive statements at this stage. The question remains as to why one should trust the reports of Russian propaganda at all.

Because the Ukrainian armed forces maintain radio discipline and do not disseminate images or videos of current offensives within Russia on social media, it is the Russian military bloggers who are the only ones reporting on the events.

Are there parallels with the Kursk invasion?

In fact, it was the same with the Kursk invasion: Initially, Russian military bloggers had written about border crossings. Exactly three weeks ago today, however, this was not really taken seriously by their Western counterparts. It then quickly emerged that Kiev had indeed crossed the border.

At that time, too, there was initially talk of 600 soldiers, but then the figure was revised upwards to 1000 opponents. While the border guards in Kursk have hardly put up any resistance, it is not yet clear whether there will be more resistance behind the barrier in Belgorod.

What awaits in Belgorod?

Belgorod has 340,000 inhabitants, is the center of the oblast of the same name and is only 40 kilometers from the border. In May and June 2023, members of the Russian Freedom Legion attempted to advance on the large city via Shebekino. At the end of June, Yevgeny Prigozhin began his march towards Moscow from there.

Belgorod is an important supply center in the rear of the Russian troops that have invaded the Kharkiv oblast, but are slowly being driven out from there. Alongside Kursk, it is the largest base for troops fighting the Ukrainian counter-invasion in Kursk. The city is located on a railroad line and the E105 highway, which connects it to Moscow.

Belgorod Oblast is an industrial center where a third of Russia's iron ore is processed. There is also bauxite and chalk here, as well as cement factories and the chemical industry.

Who will overstretch their troops first?

If the border skirmishes in Belgorod really are the start of another Ukrainian offensive, one has to wonder how long it will last.

That applies to both sides: How does the Kremlin intend to extinguish this flashpoint if it is already unable to push back the enemy in Kursk? Especially as Moksau is currently unable to hold the positions in Volchansk in the Ukrainian city of Kharjkiw, which is only around ten kilometers away from Shebekino?

But the reverse is also true: why should Kiev open a new front in Belgorod if neither Kharkiv nor the Donbass can be liberated? Could it not also be Ukraine that is devouring more than it can digest?

The fog of war is too thick: that cannot be clarified now. Not yet.