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J. D. Vance is already considered a promising contender for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. But the very closeness to President Donald Trump that helps him within the party could hurt him in the actual election.
There are only a few months left until the midterm elections, which will set the political course for American politics over the next two years. One person is likely to be following the results particularly closely: J.D. Vance knows that a strong showing by the Republican Party is crucial for his future career.
The U.S. vice president is making the rounds on podcasts and TV shows, publishing books, addressing issues that resonate with conservative voters, and seeking direct contact with various segments of the Republican public. According to the “Spiegel," Vance gave more than 30 interviews in just one month. His new book, *Communion*, in which he describes his return to faith, became a bestseller. It has long been clear: This man does not want to remain in the shadow of U.S. President Donald Trump. He wants his job.
At first glance, there’s a lot going for Vance. The “Wall Street Journal" concludes in an op-ed that the Republican nomination would be almost certain for him if he were to actually run. The decisive advantage, it says, is not so much his political talent as his office.
Vice presidents appear alongside the president, benefit from his networks, and take over parts of his political infrastructure. They can raise campaign funds, increase their visibility, and put pressure on potential rivals early on. Vance is doing exactly that: He leads in polls among Republican primary voters and plays a central role in fundraising within the party.
Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has closed the gap significantly in recent polls and is now only slightly behind Vance, experts believe this trend is short-lived. Rubio has been omnipresent in the media in recent weeks due to the war in the Middle East and is therefore particularly popular at the moment.
History suggests, however, that Vance could win the primary. In modern U.S. politics, incumbent vice presidents have almost always prevailed in their party’s nomination process, provided they ran at all. Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey, George H. W. Bush, Al Gore, and most recently Kamala Harris each became their party’s logical candidate.
The Republican primary is therefore unlikely to be Vance’s biggest problem. The more difficult question is how he can position himself as a successor at all as long as Donald Trump completely dominates the party.
"Spiegel" describes Vance’s dilemma based on his appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. Rogan wanted to know whether Vance would also have started a war against Iran if he were president himself. Vance dodged the question and simply replied: “We all agree on the goal that Iran must not possess a nuclear weapon. The president has recognized that correctly.”
This is no coincidence. Vance is said to have advised Trump internally against military action. At the same time, he publicly defends the president’s goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. In doing so, he’s sending two messages at once: to the war-weary segments of the MAGA movement, he’s signaling distance; to Trump, he’s demonstrating loyalty.
This balancing act is crucial for his future. Vance must show that he has his own agenda. But if he were to openly break with Trump, he could lose a large portion of the Republican base. The MAGA movement remains closely tied to Trump himself. Without his support, it will likely be difficult for Vance to present himself as a legitimate successor.
This is precisely where a fundamental weakness in his strategy lies: Trump has so far shown little interest in grooming a clear successor. Vance must therefore win Trump’s approval without being able to count on Trump ever explicitly granting it to him.
He must also unite a divided base behind him. New fault lines are emerging over the war with Iran, relations with Israel, and the handling of the files of the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.
In an interview with Joe Rogan, Vance criticized the government’s handling of the Epstein files, but at the same time echoed unsubstantiated speculation about Epstein’s possible ties to intelligence agencies. He described himself as a “veteran among Epstein conspiracy theorists.” In doing so, he appeals to that segment of the MAGA base that fundamentally distrusts official explanations.
Vance therefore has a good chance of becoming the Republican presidential nominee. Whether he could actually win the election is another matter.
The *Wall Street Journal* points to a historical pattern: Proximity to the incumbent president is an advantage in the primaries, but often a liability in the general election. In the past century, only George H. W. Bush, in 1988, succeeded directly as president after serving as vice president under that same president. All other candidates failed. The most recent example is likely former Vice President Kamala Harris, who ran against Donald Trump in 2024 and ultimately lost to him by a wide margin.
Vance is still trying to figure out what his profile will look like without Trump.
Keystone/AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein
Vice presidents are held partly responsible for their government’s economic situation, foreign policy, and the social climate. At the same time, they usually face an opponent who can credibly promise political change.
For Vance, this means: The more he presents himself as Trump’s successor, the easier it will be for a Democratic opponent to hold him responsible for all the administration’s problems. If, on the other hand, he distances himself too much, he risks alienating the Republican base.
Within the Republican Party, Trump is his greatest asset. For a nationwide election victory, however, Trump could become his biggest problem. Vance is therefore likely to try to present himself as a loyal heir who carries on Trump’s movement but leads it in a more disciplined, ideological, and predictable manner.
His path to the White House is still a steep one, however. For J.D. Vance, that path leads, of all people, through a president who considers himself irreplaceable.
21.07.2026, 04:30
21.07.2026, 07:19
