Lebanon: Dispute over disarming Hezbollah escalates

Hezbollah rejects its disarmament. It argues that Israeli attacks on targets in Lebanon continue despite a ceasefire and that Israel continues to occupy five posts in southern Lebanon.

Experts consider the complete disarmament of Hezbollah to be extremely difficult, as the organization has an extensive arsenal of weapons and is deeply rooted in parts of Lebanese society.

However, the war with Israel has changed the balance of power in the country. Is Lebanon now at a turning point or is the Mediterranean state facing another crisis? The most important questions and answers:

How strong is Hezbollah compared to the regular Lebanese army?

Hezbollah has its own military structure with armed units. It acts independently of the state army. The militia has its own arsenal of missiles and artillery. Iran has supplied it with weapons since it was founded in 1982. Their common arch-enemy is Israel.

Thanks to Iranian support, Hezbollah's equipment is more modern than that of the Lebanese armed forces, which have been weakened by an ongoing economic crisis and political crises. Especially in the south of the country, Hezbollah has long been considered militarily superior.

It should not be underestimated, says Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Center to the German Press Agency. Should it come to a military confrontation with the army, Hezbollah would have the means to defend itself and bring about a stalemate.

How much political power does Hezbollah still have?

Politically, Hezbollah remains a central player. It is also represented in parliament in the multi-confessional country and enjoys great influence, especially in the Shiite community. Thanks to its power, which has grown over the years, it has repeatedly been able to obstruct or block political processes in the past.

Although its ability to intimidate has diminished, it retains "the power of the strong community", explains expert Young. Her alliance with parliamentary speaker Nabih Berri, one of the country's most powerful politicians and leader of the Amal movement, which is also Shiite, continues to secure her considerable influence, as neither President Joseph Aoun nor Prime Minister Nauaf Salam seek a confrontation with Berri. On the other hand, "it can't do much against Israel", says Young.

What is the government's interest in disarmament?

Israel, the USA and the Lebanese government are pushing for Hezbollah to be disarmed in order to usher in a new phase for Lebanon. Nizar Ghanem, director of the Lebanese think tank Triangle, explains that this should bring Lebanon back onto the international stage. The country is isolated. An armed Hezbollah, which has long acted like a state within a state, also deters investors from the Arab Gulf states. Without a Hezbollah under arms, the economy could also grow again.

President Aoun reiterated several times that all weapons must fall under state control in order to usher in a "new phase in the history of Lebanon". This also includes the reorganization of the balance of power, which has been deadlocked for years.

How is Hezbollah reacting?

Hezbollah rejects disarmament as long as Israel continues to attack targets in the country and Israeli troops are stationed in southern Lebanon. It sees disarmament as weakening the entire country and fulfilling Israeli interests. Hezbollah sees itself as the only real force capable of resisting Israel.

According to expert Young, a complete renunciation of weapons by Hezbollah is currently hardly conceivable: "Even collecting heavy weapons would be difficult". Complete disarmament would probably never be fully feasible. This is because the militia and its members are also in possession of numerous light weapons. The current stalemate makes it even more difficult.

What happens now?

There is still no plan as to how the disarmament will take place. The army is to draw one up by the end of the month. If the government then takes concrete steps, a domestic political crisis could be imminent.

Hezbollah could block government decisions with the help of its allies. The alliance of Hezbollah and the Amal movement, often referred to as the "Shiite duo", had already previously declared its opposition to any disarmament. Hezbollah could mobilize its hundreds of thousands of supporters and withdraw its members from the government, which would endanger the fragile political balance in the country.

At the same time, Israel could increase its pressure to enforce disarmament militarily. In any case, the situation remains tense.