Europe Left to his own devices: Are Trump's policies now also dividing the EU?
Are US President Donald Trump's policies also dividing the European Union? Or will the association of states be able to unite and effectively counter him? These questions are more urgent than ever following the developments of the past few days. A crisis meeting of EU heads of state and government could provide the first answers today.
06.03.2025, 05:34
SDA
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is also making his way to Brussels. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) is attending on behalf of Germany; it is likely to be one of his last EU summits. An overview of what it's all about:
What is the starting position?
Trump and his team have been making it very clear for weeks that they want to force negotiations on an end to the Russian war of aggression - whatever the cost. In concrete terms, Trump has so far called the president of the attacked Ukraine a dictator and stopped US military aid to Ukraine. From Trump's point of view, Ukraine must also make major concessions in negotiations with Russia.
The Europeans have so far been left out of all the talks. It is also still unclear whether they will be given a seat at the negotiating table in possible peace talks. However, Trump wants them to bear responsibility for securing a possible peace deal and to be solely responsible for conventional deterrence in Europe in future.
What does this mean for the EU?
The Europeans need to rearm - and they need to do so quickly and on a massive scale. Intelligence agencies assume that Russia will be in a military position to start another war by 2030 at the latest. This can possibly only be deterred if the EU states significantly expand their military capabilities by then. Many armed forces are currently in a rather poor state because defense spending was drastically reduced in the years following the end of the Cold War.
There is a broad consensus among EU countries that defense spending needs to be significantly increased. For many governments, however, the question is where the money is to come from - especially as the EU Commission recently estimated the additional investment requirement to be in the high three-digit billion euro range and countries such as France and Italy are already heavily in debt.
Is there a plan?
The EU Commission, which is responsible for proposals and legislative initiatives, has drawn up a plan called "ReArm Europe" and hopes that it will receive the necessary approval at the EU summit. President Ursula von der Leyen hopes that several measures could mobilize a total of almost 800 billion euros.
Among other things, the authority wants an EU loan of up to 150 billion euros - for example for the purchase of air and missile defense, artillery systems and drones. The European Investment Bank (EIB) is also to change its lending rules so that pure armaments projects can also be funded.
The Commission also proposes that the individual member states should be able to use a special rule for defense spending under the EU debt rules for a period of four years. This would allow them to take out new loans for armaments without risking an EU deficit procedure.
What is Germany's position on this?
Germany wants a different solution to the debt rules. According to reports from EU diplomatic circles, the Permanent Representative of the Federal Government brought up a longer-term solution instead of a temporary exemption rule for arms investments at a meeting with his EU counterparts on Wednesday. A spokesperson for the German government did not wish to comment on this.
In mid-February, Chancellor Scholz had spoken out in favor of a targeted change to the current EU debt rules in order to allow higher investments in defense equipment within a clearly limited framework. Such an approach could therefore create clearer conditions than would be the case with the special rule - the so-called escape clause.
What is Chancellor Scholz bringing to Brussels?
The easing of the debt brake for defense spending, which the CDU/CSU and SPD agreed on Tuesday in their exploratory negotiations. Germany is thus demonstrating its ability to act even in the transition phase between two governments. And that is sorely needed. Germany has already been marginalized in the diplomatic efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine. The UK and France are now taking the lead in working with Ukraine on a European peace plan.
What are the difficulties?
The EU currently has little choice but to support Ukraine as best it can in its difficult situation and to repeatedly point out to US President Trump the consequences that a bad deal to end the war could have for him and his country. The difficulty here is that far-reaching EU decisions have to be made unanimously and, in particular, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban, a politician who is completely in line with Trump, is involved in the decision-making process.
Orban has already announced that he will block support decisions for Ukraine at the summit. His Slovakian counterpart Robert Fico has also signaled his opposition to a joint summit declaration in favour of Ukraine. Both are in favor of Trump's course in the Ukraine conflict and maintain close relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Could there still be further support from the EU?
Among other things, further pledges for military aid are planned, which could also be given on a voluntary basis in the event of a veto from Hungary. First of all, the aim is to ensure that Ukraine does not have to enter possible talks with Russia in a position of weakness - and is also prepared for the situation that Putin does not actually want to negotiate.
The EU is also discussing how Russia could be prevented from attacking Ukraine again after a possible ceasefire. In addition to the international troop presence being considered by France and the UK in particular, the so-called porcupine strategy is also being discussed. This would mean, for example, supplying Ukraine with weapons systems with which it could strike back much harder than before in the event of renewed Russian aggression. This could also include German Taurus cruise missiles, which Chancellor Scholz has always refused to supply to Ukraine.
