Great Britain Local elections in England: the beginning of the end for the Tories?
In the week of the English local elections, the cover of the renowned British magazine "Economist" shows the large-format face of a man looking through sunglasses with a casual expression.
01.05.2025, 09:50
SDA
He holds no public office and only managed to become a member of the British parliament at the eighth attempt. Nevertheless, Nigel Farage, Brexit campaigner and leader of the right-wing populist Reform Party, is a "man Britain cannot ignore", as the Economist headlines.
Farage as the Tories' gravedigger?
But is he also Britain's next prime minister and the gravedigger of the Tories, the traditional Conservative Party? That is his declared goal, as he made clear last year in an interview with the German Press Agency.
That this could happen is no longer considered out of the question. And the result of the local elections, which will be held this Thursday in parts of England, could prove to be an omen.
Councillors in around two dozen wards across much of England and mayors of several local authority areas will be elected. And it is above all the Tory party, which has produced such famous heads of government as wartime Prime Minister Winston Churchill and the "Iron Lady" Margaret Thatcher, that must be worried.
Tories made Farage's issues their own
Under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Tories won a landslide victory in local elections in roughly the same districts in 2021. It is now feared that they will lose around half of their almost 1,000 local council seats - many of them to Farage's Reform UK party.
For a long time, the Conservatives were able to keep Farage at arm's length, who competed with them from the right in various party incarnations such as Ukip, the Brexit Party and most recently Reform UK. Leaving the EU, boat refugees, the fight against "woke" ideas: whatever Farage focused on, the Tories were soon on the spot and adopted his views.
Reform UK ahead in the polls
However, the gap has shrunk significantly of late. Similar to the AfD in Germany, Farage's party has also made strong gains in the polls following the recent general election. With an average of 25 percent, it is even ahead of the governing Labor Party (23 percent) and the Tories (21 percent) in the latest polls. In addition, the current Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch is considered weak.
If a general election were to be held now, it is estimated that Reform could become the largest parliamentary group in the British parliament. This would be a shock, as the British majority voting system has so far usually ensured that either the Conservatives or Labor received a clear mandate to govern. Although not official, the UK was therefore a two-party system.
Flirting with a pact or coalition
The Tories' nightmare is that this system could be permanently disrupted, or even worse, that it could level out again - but not with the Tories - but with Reform as the antithesis of Labour. The Conservatives are therefore already discussing whether it would be better to form a pact or a coalition with Farage. Badenoch has at least ruled this out at national level. However, her internal party opponent Robert Jenrick has already publicly flirted with the idea.
The next general election is not due until 2029, and local election results are only of limited significance for national trends. However, politics professor Tony Travers from the London School of Economics believes that the now well-organized Farage party would benefit significantly from success at local level: "It will significantly increase Reform's ability to win parliamentary seats," he says. So far, Reform has just four MPs in the House of Commons.
Labour is "paranoid" about Reform
There is also great fear of Farage in the ruling Labour Party. LSE politics professor Sara Hobolt even speaks of "paranoia". The background to this is that many traditional working-class Labour voters, particularly in the north of the country, voted to leave the EU in the Brexit referendum. Farage's messages are likely to fall on fertile ground with them.
Reform could achieve a notable success in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election near Liverpool: A new MP is being sought there after Labor MP Mike Amesbury had to resign because he had knocked a man down. Reform was recently narrowly ahead in the polls.
Things are not looking good for Labour in the local elections either. However, their losses will be limited simply because the party had already performed poorly in the last election. In addition, the Social Democrats have a solid majority in parliament. Labour should therefore "perhaps focus a little more on governing and a little less on reform", says Hobolt.
