Germany Majority for red-green in Hamburg
Despite losing votes, the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens can continue the alliance they have had in Hamburg since 2015.
02.03.2025, 20:03
SDA
In the regional elections in the northern German city state, the SPD led by Hamburg's First Mayor Peter Tschentscher once again became the strongest force by a wide margin. The Greens and the Christian Democratic CDU fought a neck-and-neck race for second place, with the CDU making significant gains. Tschentscher reiterated his preference for red-green. He announced talks initially with the previous partner, but then also with the CDU.
The Left Party reached double figures in Hamburg for the first time. The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) also made gains. The liberal FDP and the left-wing populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) fell well short of the five percent hurdle and were even overtaken by the European party Volt. As things stand, the vote in the Hanseatic city is the only election at state level in Germany this year.
SPD falls to 33.7 to 34.3 percent
According to the first projection by ARD (7.21 pm) and a ZDF "Trend" (7.00 pm), the SPD slipped to 33.7 to 34.3 percent (2020: 39.2 percent), but became the strongest force. The Greens, led by top candidate and second mayor Katharina Fegebank, also dropped to 17.8 to 19.8 percent after their record result in 2020 (24.2 percent).
The CDU, led by top candidate Dennis Thering, was able to break out of its historic low (2020: 11.2 percent) and almost double its share of the vote to 19.7 to 20.0 percent.
The Left Party increased to between 11.4 and 11.5 percent (2020: 9.1 percent). "The comeback continues," commented Jan van Aken, Federal Chairman of the Left Party, on the result. The party made particularly strong gains among young voters. The AfD is at 7.2 to 8.2 percent (2020: 5.3 percent) and is therefore not even half as strong as in the federal government.
FDP and BSW clearly miss the five percent hurdle
According to the ARD projection, the FDP once again fell well short of the five percent hurdle with 2.4 percent (4.97). This would be the worst result ever for the Liberals in a parliamentary election. According to ARD figures, the BSW did not make it into the state parliament, the Bürgerschaft, on its first attempt in Hamburg with 2.0 percent. The European party Volt achieved 2.9 to 3 percent.
Voter turnout rose significantly - according to ZDF and ARD figures, to between 67 and 68 percent. In 2020, 63.0 percent of eligible voters cast their vote. Around 1.3 million Hamburg residents aged 16 and over were eligible to vote in Germany's second-largest city. The state parliament - the Bürgerschaft - regularly has 121 seats.
State political issues dominated the election campaign, in particular the traffic problems in the city and housing construction in view of the shortage of affordable housing. Migration and boosting the economy, which is characterized by the port, also played an important role.
SPD and Greens can form a coalition again
The signs in Hamburg point to a continuation of the red-green coalition. Mayor Tschentscher said on ZDF television that a new coalition remains a top priority and that he is confident about this. There had been a great deal of approval for the government's work, both in terms of content and style. Tschentscher announced that he would first talk to the Greens, but then also to the CDU.
The red-green government majority would be less comfortable than before. Since 2020, both parliamentary groups have even had a two-thirds majority in the town hall. That is no longer the case.
Thering ready for red-black
Tschentscher has been at the helm of Hamburg politics since 2018. He succeeded the current Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who initially moved to the Ministry of Finance in Berlin. The Scholz years in Hamburg were still golden years for the Social Democrats. From 2011 to 2015, they even managed to form a sole government.
Although the previous junior partner lost votes after the record in 2020, it is stronger than in the federal election. Federal Green Party leader Franziska Brantner said on ZDF television that she saw a "clear mandate to govern for the red-green party" in Hamburg. Fegebank was relieved. A weight had fallen from her shoulders after the forecast.
CDU top candidate Thering (40) has not given up on the chance of a coalition with the SPD. "We are available for a stable government with positive changes, especially in the areas of security, the economy and transport," he said. CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann said on ZDF television that it was time for a new signal of departure towards a red-black coalition.
What does the Hamburg election mean for federal politics?
One week after the federal election, the significance beyond Hamburg is limited. In the Bundesrat - where Hamburg has 3 of the 69 votes - nothing will change if the red-green coalition remains in power. Despite losing votes, the SPD and Greens are likely to point out that red-green is not an obsolete model. The Hamburg SPD has been able to decouple itself from the national trend to some extent and is twice as strong in the city state as in the new Bundestag. The CDU, Left Party and AfD are also enjoying an increase in votes at state level.
In the federal election on Sunday a week ago, Scholz's SPD plummeted from 25.7% to 16.4% and is now only the third strongest party in the federal government behind the Christian Democrats and the AfD. It was by far the worst result for Germany's oldest party in a federal election.
Should the CDU/CSU and SPD form a coalition at federal level, they will no longer have to take state elections into consideration until well into next year. In 2026, state elections will be held in five federal states with a combined population of around 23 million: Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The exploratory talks between the CDU/CSU and SPD at federal level are to continue on Monday.
