Germany Merz and Selenskyj: The glimmer of hope has vanished
When German Chancellor Friedrich Merz met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in Kiev in mid-May, just four days after taking office, hopes were still high for a genuine negotiation process to end the war.
28.05.2025, 04:37
SDA
When the two meet again today in Berlin almost three weeks later, virtually nothing remains of this.
The thin thread of talks between Russia and Ukraine has been severed. Russian airstrikes are more intense than ever before. And US President Donald Trump is about to leave the Europeans alone with the problem.
Visit still not officially confirmed
Several media outlets have reported on Zelensky's planned visit to Berlin in recent days, although such trips are usually kept secret until the very end for security reasons. There is therefore still no official confirmation. In his video message, which was published relatively early this time, Zelensky did not provide any information about an imminent departure from Kiev.
This is Selensky's fourth visit to Berlin since the Russian invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago. It is taking place in an extremely difficult situation - and coincides with Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul's inaugural visit to Washington.
At his meeting today with his US counterpart Marco Rubio, Merz's chief diplomat wants to advocate closing ranks with the USA in its dealings with Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin. "In order for Putin to finally come to the negotiating table and for Russia to finally enter into serious negotiations, we must keep up the pressure," explained the CDU politician before departing for Washington. "We Europeans will continue to tighten the sanctions, and the US Congress is also prepared to impose more sanctions."
Merz makes gloomy predictions
In recent days, Merz has given the impression that he has completely given up faith in a solution at the negotiating table. Wars usually come to an end through the economic or military exhaustion of one or both sides, he said on Tuesday during his visit to Finland. "We are obviously still a long way from that in this war. That is why I expect that we may have to prepare ourselves for a longer duration."
The disillusionment with the diplomatic efforts is also the reason why Merz made the lifting of the range limit for the use of German weapons in the Ukraine war public at the beginning of the week. In doing so, he supported Ukrainian military strikes against positions on Russian territory in order to signal to Russian President Putin that European solidarity with Ukraine remains unbroken.
The Greens and the CDU/CSU are now once again calling for the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles with a range of 500 kilometers. However, Merz has been very reserved about this recently - he doesn't really want to talk about the issue in public any more.
The military situation: Ukraine lacks weapons
Militarily, Ukraine has been on the defensive for a long time; however, even after more than three years of aggressive war, Russia has not succeeded in breaking the Ukrainians' resistance. In order to gain the upper hand, the Ukrainian army would need powerful weapons systems to destroy Russian command posts and supply routes behind the front line.
In his video message, Selensky announced that he would continue to expand the arms industry. Russia must feel that all its misdeeds against Ukraine will be answered, he said. "Key elements (for this) are attack drones, interceptors, cruise missiles and Ukrainian ballistic missiles. We have to produce everything," he demanded.
So far, this is nothing more than a game plan, even though Zelensky explained that the government is preparing investment contracts with European partners in order to relocate further military production to the country.
Reluctant resistance from Ukraine
Ukraine has already further developed its drones. It can use them to selectively damage energy facilities and military objects in Russia or disrupt civilian air traffic. However, air sovereignty still lies with Russia, as the heavy night-time bombardments last weekend have shown.
It is true that Ukrainian air defenses have been strengthened - especially with German help. But the Russian drone swarms are getting bigger, and there is hardly any defense against gliding bombs and ballistic missiles. There is a lack of weapon systems and anti-aircraft ammunition.
The Ukrainian lack of soldiers is clearly evident in battles on the ground. In Donbass in the east, the defenders are putting up stubborn resistance. The Russian attackers are advancing step by step, even though they are suffering heavy losses in terms of soldiers and technology. Moscow is gathering troops for further offensives in the summer. There is also a threat of the front being extended because Russia wants to conquer a buffer zone along its border. Both sides are engaged in a war of attrition with an uncertain outcome.
Peace efforts? Trump's quick advance has failed
US President Trump's plan when he took office was to use his - as he sees it - good relationship with Putin to achieve a quick end to the war. He did not put pressure on him, but on Ukraine, which had previously been an ally. However, despite several top-level telephone calls and preparatory meetings, nothing more was achieved than a direct Ukrainian-Russian meeting in Istanbul. Apart from an exchange of prisoners, no results were achieved.
Kiev has accepted Trump's proposal of a 30-day ceasefire as a starting point for negotiations. Moscow continues to reject this and, despite all assurances of a desire for peace, is ultimately sticking to its maximum demands: Ukraine is to be disarmed and practically brought back under Russian control.
In view of Trump's wavering stance, it is becoming increasingly important for European states to ensure security on their own continent. In addition to the promise of continued military support, a further package of sanctions is likely to follow soon. However, Russia has so far been unimpressed by punitive measures.
The Russian leadership has also coolly wiped away Trump's increasing dissatisfaction. When the US president said at the weekend that Putin had "gone crazy" following massive Russian bombardments of Ukrainian cities, the Kremlin saw this as a sign of "emotional overload" due to the ongoing negotiations.
