Head-to-head race in the presidential election in Poland

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• After the run-off election for the presidency in Poland, a neck-and-neck race between the pro-European Rafal Trzaskowski and the nationalist Karol Nawrocki emerged on Sunday evening.
• According to the forecasts published by the polling institute Ipsos after the polling stations closed, Trzaskowski received 50.3 percent of the vote and Nawrocki 49.7 percent.
• Both candidates appeared confident of victory immediately after the figures were announced.

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Both politicians appeared confident of victory in front of their supporters. Trzaskowski spoke of a success immediately after the first forecasts were announced. "We have won, even if I believe that the expression "on the razor's edge" will enter the Polish language," said the 53-year-old to the cheers of his supporters. The mood at Nawrocki's election party was much more subdued. He appealed to his supporters not to lose hope. "We have to win that night and we know it will happen."

The forecasts are based on post-election surveys at around 500 polling stations. According to the polling institute Ipsos, they have a margin of error of two percentage points. There are no projections in Poland as there are in Germany. The official final result is expected on Monday morning.

The approximately 29 million eligible voters were called upon to elect a successor to President Andrzej Duda. The latter was not allowed to run again after two terms in office.

Directional election in Poland

The vote is seen as a directional election for the EU and NATO member state Poland. Nawrocki, who has no party affiliation, is the candidate of the right-wing conservative PiS, Poland's largest opposition party. The PiS governed the country from 2015 to 2023, placing the judiciary under the control of politicians and was in a permanent dispute with Brussels due to this interference in the separation of powers.

Donald Tusk's center-left alliance, which has been in power since December 2023, has attempted to reverse much of this with reform projects. However, the previous President Duda, who comes from the ranks of the PiS, put the brakes on this with his veto. Tusk does not have the necessary majority of 60 percent in parliament to override presidential vetoes.

"Forwards or backwards?"

What the fateful election in Poland means for Europe

The Polish head of government is therefore hoping that his political colleague Trzaskowski will win the election. The 53-year-old mayor of Warsaw is considered progressive and left-wing within his political camp. As head of state, he would support Tusk's course.

President with a lot of power

In Poland, the president holds office for five years. The head of state has more powers than the Federal President in Germany. He not only represents the country to the outside world. The president also has influence over foreign policy, appoints the head of government and the cabinet and is the commander-in-chief of the Polish armed forces in the event of war. Above all, however, he can make life difficult for the government with his right of veto.