Politics New president in Iran - muted hope for change
After his victory in the presidential election in Iran, the comparatively moderate candidate Massud Peseshkian is facing major challenges. Many of his voters are likely to expect a change in policy from him. Whether this can succeed depends on several factors. Former Iranian President Hassan Ruhani also sees Peseshkian's election as an opportunity to resume nuclear negotiations, the newspaper "Shargh" quoted the former head of government as saying.
07.07.2024, 16:54
SDA
Peseshkian won a run-off election on Friday with 53.7 percent of the vote against his ultra-conservative challenger Said Jalili. The politician belongs to the reformist camp. Its supporters want to reform the Islamic Republic from within without affecting the fundamental balance of power - such as the absolute authority of the religious leader in the state. Observers see the victory as a blow to the conservative ruling elite and a success for the relatively moderate reformist camp, which has been isolated from politics in recent years.
Peseshkian said on Saturday that it was now a matter of "overcoming the various challenges and crises". There are several of them: Iran is subject to international sanctions due to its controversial nuclear program and is largely cut off from the global financial system. The country needs billions in investment, unemployment and income inequality are high. Society has been deeply divided, and not just since the recent wave of protests triggered by the death of a young woman at the hands of the morality police in 2022. In terms of foreign policy, the conflict with Israel and the West is also simmering.
Religious leader Khamenei wants cooperation between the camps
Peseshkian has announced an improvement in relations with the West and criticized the headscarf policy in the country during the election campaign. However, in view of the complex political situation and powerful interest groups in Iran, it is unclear to what extent a significant change of course can actually be expected from the run-off winner Peseshkian. Observers assume that he will attempt to reshape both domestic and foreign policy in order to revive the ailing economy.
How much influence Peseshkian will have also depends largely on religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most powerful man in the state. There are also influential interest groups such as the Revolutionary Guards - Iran's elite military force, which is also a major economic power in the country. The Revolutionary Guards will play a role in deciding whether there will be any noticeable change of course.
As the newspaper "Shargh" reported, citing members of parliament, Peseshkian is to be sworn in on August 4 or 5. The president will then have 15 days to present his cabinet. This is to be confirmed by parliament on August 22. The hardliners have a majority there. Following the election of Peseshkian and the defeat of the hardline candidate, religious leader Khamenei called for "political rivalry to be turned into friendship". However, it is unlikely that the arch-conservatives will cooperate with the hostile camp of moderates.
Majority of Iranians eligible to vote did not vote
Iran's political system has combined republican and theocratic features since the 1979 revolution. However, there are no free elections: the so-called Guardian Council, a powerful Islamic supervisory body, always checks candidates for their suitability. This time, the Guardian Council only allowed six of the 80 presidential candidates to stand in the first round of elections.
Very few Iranians believe in change in the country. Reforms to the political system are not possible, they often say with resignation. As in this year's parliamentary elections, the weeks leading up to the vote were characterized by conspicuous indifference. In the first round, this was reflected in a historically low voter turnout of around 40 percent. In the run-off, the turnout then reached 49.8 percent.
The early election followed the death of incumbent Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash in May. His almost three-year term of office was characterized by political repression, waves of protest and a deterioration in the economic situation.
New president wants to win back the people's trust
Against this backdrop, Peseshkian campaigned for a new relationship of trust between the government and the people. He brings political experience with him. During Mohammed Khatami's second presidency (2001-2005), Peseshkian was Minister of Health. Despite his moderate rhetoric, he backed the powerful Revolutionary Guards and praised the attack with drones and missiles on arch-enemy Israel in April. In the TV debates, he described himself as a conservative politician who nevertheless believes reforms are necessary.
