Soon the front will freeze again Now Putin wants to slowly bleed Ukraine dry

In eastern Ukraine, the two warring parties are barely budging. This is particularly problematic for one country.

What next? Many politicians, soldiers and civilians in the embattled Russian and Ukrainian oblasts are asking themselves this question these days. Following Donald Trump's election victory and his promise to end the war in Ukraine within a few days, the eyes of the world are increasingly turning back to the bloody war of attrition.

Ukraine has now endured two and a half years of war. The country is facing another harsh winter in the coming months. Temperatures in the east of the country will rarely rise above 0 degrees, and the actions on the battlefield will not only freeze on the thermometer. This is because heavy artillery such as tanks can barely move forward, the battle practically comes to a standstill.

"This does not bode well for Ukraine," says retired US General Mark Kimmit to theWall Street Journal. If you look at the fighting over the last six months, the picture is always the same. "Russia attacks, Ukraine defends. Kiev hardly manages any pinpricks forward. I don't think that will change again this winter."

War is purely a battle of attrition

According to the general, the Russians' main focus is still on the Kharkiv region. This is also shown by evaluations by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which has been documenting daily events on the battlefield since the outbreak of the war. "The Russians are trying to establish a corridor in the region between Kharkiv and the occupied territories. The Ukrainians are fighting back," reads a situation report from mid-October.

Experts agree that the war is currently a battle of attrition for both sides. "Neither side is winning, neither side is losing," says former General Kimmit. But: "Ukraine is having much more trouble replacing its injured or killed soldiers."

In fact, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to have no difficulty in constantly replenishing his own ranks - with the help of foreign countries if necessary. Thousands of North Korean soldiers are said to have already been sent to Russia to fight in the Russian ranks.

"This is a setback for Ukraine," says Kimmitt. This is because the constant supply of troops from Russia also means that Ukraine has to keep finding new personnel. And that is becoming increasingly difficult. "Putin wants to try to slowly bleed Ukraine dry," says Kimmitt.

Is diplomacy winning against the battlefield?

Political scientist Christian Mölling also told WDR in January that the bleeding to death is part of Putin's calculation. "The Russian president is of course watching events very closely and knows that Ukraine cannot keep up forever from a personnel perspective. That is part of the strategy."

Ukraine has therefore taken measures. "Ukrainian President Zelensky is said to have issued an order that young soldiers should be better protected - in the knowledge that they are the future of the country," says General Kimmitt. "Of course, this also entails cuts. Ukraine is starting to have a serious personnel problem."

Kimmitt is unwilling to predict how the war will develop over the next few years and how Trump could force the two countries to the negotiating table. Nevertheless, he dares to look into the future and says: "I think the Ukrainian troops can hold out for another year or so. But I am also convinced that the diplomatic changes will cause Ukraine greater problems in the coming months than the situation on the battlefield."