Poll on voting on March 8 One initiative has no chance - things look better for two others
A new survey shows: The climate fund initiative has no chance in the vote on March 8. Things look better for the two other popular initiatives and a counter-proposal.
21.01.2026, 06:01
21.01.2026, 08:26
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- A survey shows: The climate fund initiative has no chance in the vote on March 8.
- In contrast, there is clear support for individual taxation as well as for the cash initiative and its counter-proposal.
- The halving initiative also received a narrow majority of respondents.
The climate fund initiative has no chance in the vote on March 8. This is the result of a new survey. In contrast, there is clear support for individual taxation as well as for the cash initiative and the counter-proposal to it; the halving initiative also receives a narrow majority of respondents.
The introduction of individual taxation is currently supported by a clear majority of voters (64%), the cash initiative is backed by 62% and the direct counter-proposal by 58%, according to the first wave of the "20 Minuten" and Tamedia poll published on Wednesday.
The halving initiative received 50 percent of votes in favor and 48 percent against, while the climate fund initiative was clearly rejected with 59 percent against.
Individual taxation uncontroversial
The federal law on individual taxation is supported by supporters of all the parties considered - the Greens, SP, GLP, Center, FDP and SVP. It has a clear majority among all genders, language groups, settlement types, age groups and all education and income classes.
Among those in favor, one core argument in particular speaks for individual taxation: that it guarantees fair taxes for all, regardless of marital status and gender.
The cash initiative, on the other hand, is supported by supporters of the SP, Center Party, FDP and SVP. The Greens and the Green Liberals (GLP) are against it. The issue is supported by women and men in equal measure. It is also supported by a majority in all language regions, in urban and rural areas and in all age groups.
The initiative only lacks majority support among people with a higher education, such as university or university of applied sciences, and among the highest income groups with a monthly income of CHF 16,000 or more. By far the most convincing core argument for those in favor is that cash is not dependent on technical systems (electricity, card readers, internet).
Francs and cash supply
All the parties considered (Greens, SP, GLP, Center and FDP) support the counter-proposal to the cash initiative, with the exception of SVP sympathizers. It has a majority across all language groups, settlement types and age groups, although approval is lowest among the youngest voters (18 to 34-year-olds).
For those in favor, the main argument is that the counter-proposal secures the Swiss franc and the supply of cash without changing the tried-and-tested system.
The SVP in particular wants to halve
At 85%, the SVP base is very clearly in favor of the halving initiative. The issue also has a majority among FDP sympathizers, albeit by a rather narrow margin of 55%. By contrast, the halving initiative is rejected by a majority of centrist, GLP, SP and Green supporters.
There are hardly any differences in voting intentions between women and men or between the language regions. Support for the halving initiative is particularly high in rural areas, among voters with a compulsory school-leaving certificate, among people with lower incomes and in the younger age groups.
Two arguments in particular met with approval among supporters: firstly, the initiative would force SRG to refocus on its core mandate, i.e. information and education in all national languages. Secondly, the Swiss population currently pays one of the highest media fees in the world, which is no longer sustainable due to the rising cost of living.
Left and green for climate fund
The climate fund initiative is clearly supported by supporters of the Greens and the SP. On the other hand, supporters of the GLP, Center, FDP and SVP reject the initiative, with particularly strong opposition among the SVP and FDP base. Accordingly, the party-political conflict pattern is clearly pronounced.
The climate fund initiative does not achieve a majority in any significant social group in the survey. However, there are notable differences in voting intention according to gender, settlement type and level of education: women, voters living in urban areas and people with a university degree show a higher level of approval.
For those in favor, the core argument that the initiative makes the protection of the climate and nature a public task is particularly important. Climate protection would thus be financed fairly and no one would be left alone.
The survey was conducted by the Leewas Institute on January 14 and 15. The results are based on 16,198 responses from survey participants modeled according to demographic, geographical and political variables (12,088 from German-speaking Switzerland, 3,759 from French-speaking Switzerland, 351 from Ticino).
