Politics Parliamentary election in France: Left surprisingly ahead
According to initial projections, the left-wing alliance is surprisingly ahead in the parliamentary elections in France. The right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National could end up in third place behind the center camp of President Emmanuel Macron, as reported by the broadcasters TF1 and France 2 after the polls closed. Neither camp is likely to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.
07.07.2024, 21:31
SDA
According to the figures, the left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire could end up with 172 to 215 of the 577 seats. Macron's forces will therefore receive 150 to 180 seats and the Rassemblement National (RN) led by Marine Le Pen and her allies 120 to 152.
Surprise success with a coalition of convenience
The result is a big surprise. After the first round of voting a week ago, forecasts still saw the RN just short of an absolute majority and therefore possibly in a position to form the next government. Nevertheless, the RN made significant gains: it still had 88 seats in the dissolved parliament.
The left and Macron's centrist forces had formed an alliance of convenience before the second round of elections. In order not to take votes away from each other in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round and thus help the RN to win locally, a number of left-wing and liberal candidates withdrew. They called on their voters to vote against the RN in any case.
France's divided left had only united a few weeks ago to form the Nouveau Front Populaire for the parliamentary elections. In the European elections, the parties had run individually. There is a dispute within the left, particularly over the old-left leadership icon Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The populist, who stands out with his Eurosceptic statements and is clearly pro-Palestinian, is heavily criticized even within his own party.
The alliance of leftists, communists, socialists and greens does not have a clear leadership. Nor does it have a common program.
Will there be a minority government or grand coalition?
What happens next is unclear for the time being. The result gives rise to various future scenarios. The left could try to gain support from the centrist forces - either as a minority government with acquiescence or in a kind of grand coalition. In view of the opposing political orientations, however, it is not clear whether this could succeed. Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, for example, had explicitly ruled out government cooperation with the left-wing party La France Insoumise.
It is unclear whether head of state Emmanuel Macron would be politically forced to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the left in such a scenario. The National Assembly can topple the government.
Will Macron have to give up power?
With a prime minister from the left, Macron would have to share power. The prime minister would become more important. What this would mean for Germany and Europe is unclear. The left-wing alliance has very different positions on many major political issues.
However, it seems clear that even in a coalition with the left, Macron would not be able to pursue his course unhindered, but would be forced to make a number of compromises.
Without a majority, standstill looms
Should none of the camps find a governing majority, the current government could remain in office as a transitional government or an expert government could be appointed. In such a scenario, France would be threatened with political gridlock. A renewed dissolution of parliament by Macron and new elections would not be possible again until July 2025.
For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris would no longer be actively available as an important player in Europe and as part of the Franco-German tandem. Instead of new initiatives, administration would be the order of the day in France. Head of state Macron's office would remain untouched by the election, but without a government capable of taking action, he would not be able to push through his projects either.
RN victory would have had consequences for Germany and Europe
Brussels and Berlin are likely to be relieved by the election result. The right-wing nationalists will be able to expand their parliamentary group in the National Assembly. However, a government seems virtually impossible for them. This would have been the worst-case scenario for Germany and the European Union. In contrast to Macron, the RN has little faith in its decades of close cooperation with Berlin. The Eurosceptic nationalists are also striving to curb the influence of the European Union in France.
With an RN government, France would have moved massively to the right politically. For the first time since the Vichy regime collaborated with the National Socialists, far-right forces would have returned to power.
Doubts about the change in Le Pen's party
The alliance of convenience between the left and liberal forces was a major disadvantage for the right-wing nationalists in the second round of elections. The fear of a right-wing nationalist government is also likely to have driven many people to the polls.
A number of RN candidates had also come under fire in the past for alleged far-right or anti-Semitic statements. This raised public doubts about Marine Le Pen's "demonization" of the party. With this course, Le Pen has been trying for years to make her party appear more moderate and to make it electable even among the middle classes.
Left-wing camp benefits from unity and fear of the right
The left benefited from their hastily formed alliance. The fact that they left the leadership question open may also have helped them to unite those voters behind them who have a problem with the left-wing populist Mélenchon.
In addition, the left is likely to have gained significantly more support due to the uncertainty and fear of a historic shift to the right in France and a right-wing nationalist government.
Macron is doing better than expected
For the unpopular Macron, the result is surprisingly less devastating than expected. Macron failed in his attempt to expand the relative majority of his centrist forces with the new elections. However, his group could still become the second force ahead of Le Pen's right-wing nationalists and be in government with the left.
In the first round of elections, the unity of the left-wing camp proved to be Macron and his supporters' undoing. The dissolution of the National Assembly was seen by many as irresponsible. The French also blamed Macron for this.
