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On Sunday, it will come down to which of the top candidates of the four largest parties was able to mobilize the most voters.
Keystone
Following the break-up of the traffic light coalition, early federal elections will be held in Germany on Sunday. Polls show the CDU clearly in the lead and the AfD is stronger than ever. Two political scientists assess the situation for blue News.
It could be one of the shortest entries in the history book of German chancellors: Olaf Scholz has been in office for three years and two months, but if current polls are anything to go by, his days as head of government are numbered. A change is looming in the chancellor's office in Berlin ahead of this Sunday's Bundestag elections.
The election, originally planned for the end of September, was brought forward after the "traffic light" coalition of SPD, FDP and Greens - named after the party colors red, yellow and green - collapsed in November due to a dispute over the federal budget. Scholz had dismissed FDP leader and then Finance Minister Christian Lindner for refusing to suspend the debt brake enshrined in the German constitution to limit borrowing.
Since then, Scholz has only led a minority government with the Greens. As expected, he lost the vote of confidence in the Bundestag on December 16.
In the polls, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) with chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz are in a stable lead with around 30 percent.
According to the latest poll results, the far-right AfD has a 21% share of the vote, followed by the SPD (15%) and the Greens (13%). At the lower end, the Left Party (7%), BSW (4%) and FDP (4%) are fighting to reach the 5% threshold and thus enter the Bundestag.
In order to govern, however, Merz's CDU and its Bavarian sister party CSU, which form a joint parliamentary group (CDU/CSU) in the Bundestag, would need at least one coalition partner.
According to political scientist Jörg Siegmund from the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing, the possible coalition options initially depend on how many parties make it into the Bundestag. "The more small parties are represented in parliament, the less likely a majority of the CDU/CSU and just one other party will be," he tells blue News. "I currently see the greatest chances of forming a coalition for the CDU/CSU and SPD - possibly with another partner."
Political scientist Klaus Schroeder, professor at the Otto Suhr Institute at Freie Universität Berlin, also sees the performance of the parties at the lower end of the spectrum as the decisive factor: "If the small parties don't make it into the Bundestag, it will probably come down to a coalition between the CDU/CSU and SPD."
While the 2021 federal election was still dominated by the climate crisis, this time the focus is on a different topic: "The election campaign this year will be heavily dominated by migration," says Siegmund.
Events such as the attack in Munich a week ago Thursday, in which a 24-year-old Afghan deliberately drove his car into a demonstration, are fueling the debate on migration policy and deportations. An advantage for the AfD, which is calling for a more restrictive approach to migration policy and advocating "remigration"? "I don't think the election will be greatly influenced," says Klaus Schroeder calmly.
Jörg Siegmund also puts things into perspective: "Despite the tragedy of this act, it will not dramatically change the election result as a single event and will not significantly strengthen the AfD." However, the attack in Munich has caused great consternation and is preoccupying many people. "It will therefore also have an impact on the mood before the election and may influence the voting behavior of some eligible voters. However, it is difficult to predict exactly how," says Siegmund.
The Munich attack is one in a series of other attacks that have taken place in recent months. And most recently it became known that the terrorist organization IS is calling online for further attacks in Germany. According to the German Carnival Association, the first carnival parades have already been canceled out of fear.
"We are a country that lives in fear and terror," says Schroeder, "I didn't think it was possible that we would experience something like this." Germany had been an anchor of stability for years, "but today Germany is nothing and economically at the end".
Siegmund also confirms that Germany is facing numerous challenges that the future federal government will have to tackle. "I'm thinking of tackling the climate crisis as well as the weakening economy, stabilizing social security systems and digitalization - not to mention foreign and security policy challenges."
The future German government will probably be led by Friedrich Merz: "Mr Merz will probably become Chancellor," confirms Klaus Schroeder, "but he will have to rely on very unstable majorities." If the Greens are involved in a coalition, he will not do much differently than Olaf Scholz is currently doing. "And that, in turn, will strengthen the AfD for the next election."
According to Schroeder, the other parties are also responsible for the fact that the AfD could now become the second strongest force in the Bundestag: "The AfD is not being fought enough in terms of content. The constant talk of 'secured right-wing extremism' no longer interests anyone."
The CDU recently pushed through its five-point plan in the Bundestag with the votes of the AfD. As a result, tens of thousands protested in many places in Germany against the impending shift to the right. According to Jörg Siegmund, a party that urgently needs votes is benefiting from this: "The voting behaviour of the CDU/CSU parties in the Bundestag three weeks ago has primarily led to a mobilization in the left-wing political spectrum. Since then, the Left Party has seen a significant upswing in the polls."
How successful the parties perform in the Bundestag elections also depends on their lead candidates. "In view of the rapid pace at which political and social challenges are changing and the complexity of many of the problems to which politicians must respond, election manifestos - as important as they are - cannot provide answers to every question," says Siegmund.
It is therefore important to have candidates who give people confidence and signal to them: "No matter what comes our way, we will deal with it responsibly." The leading candidates stand for a certain political direction, they provide orientation in a confusing political landscape.
There are also many undecided voters in this election. Their decision is ultimately likely to have a significant influence on the result. The first forecasts are expected shortly after 6 p.m. on Sunday.
