Africa and Asia on the rise Power struggle in the Vatican? Why the next papal election will be so explosive

In May, the cardinals will elect a new pope - with traditional European views clashing with emerging voices from Africa and Asia. Experts are therefore expecting difficult discussions.

The death of Pope Francis has led the Catholic Church into a phase of uncertainty. Experts expect difficult discussions and possible power struggles at the upcoming conclave in May. Rarely before have cardinals been as diverse in terms of origin, cultural background and theological orientation as they are today.

One reason for this is that the Catholic Church has been losing influence in Switzerland and other Western countries for years. In contrast, countries in Africa and Asia are experiencing a significant upswing: churches there are full, church services last longer and the belief in a higher power is firmly anchored.

In numbers: The number of members on this continent is rising steadily - in 2022, around 273 million Catholics were already living in Africa, meaning that one in five Catholics worldwide came from there.

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Canon law expert Thomas Schüller emphasizes in an interview with blue News: "The faithful in Africa and the young churches in Oceania and Asia are much more self-confident today." This development could have a significant influence on the upcoming papal election. The new cardinals are emphatically representing their own concerns. "They no longer accept a purely European perspective on the Church," continued Schüller.

Church succeeds by serving the poor

One particular concern is evangelization, i.e. the targeted missionary work of non-Christians, combined with a clear commitment to serving the poor. According to Schüller, this "fresh wind" is already clearly noticeable in Rome, as Pope Francis has deliberately appointed numerous cardinals from young, up-and-coming churches. These bring in new ways of thinking and perspectives.

In contrast, European bishops and cardinals continue to think traditionally. For them, the church is often still a kind of "state", financially secure and characterized by a western-liberal attitude. Schüller therefore expects a difficult conclave: "I anticipate lengthy discussions about where the church should be heading."

Diversity had a difficult time in the church

Eva-Maria Faber, a theologian from Chur, sees both opportunities and risks in this. "In Europe, many fear that our concerns could be neglected," Faber tells blue News.

At the same time, she suspects that a pope from Africa or Asia could also support Swiss concerns, particularly through greater decentralization, from which local churches would benefit. "It would be about giving local churches more space for their own cultural identity," she explains.

For Faber, however, it is clear that cohesion within the church has always been a challenge. Pope Francis has tried to do justice to both sides - both the unity of the universal church and the different cultural manifestations of Christian life. Historically, this has been rather unusual, as those forces that push more strongly for unity and equality have usually prevailed.

In plain language: "Pope Francis has initiated many things that can probably no longer be reversed. At the same time, a strong opposition has formed under him, which is now trying to regain more influence," explains Faber.

Canon law expert Schüller believes that the decisive moment will be whether the cardinals can reach compromises in the run-up to the conclave. He expects the conclave to be longer than usual: "It could last several days this time, not weeks, but much longer than usual." In the past, there were clearly defined political camps; today, however, very different expectations and cultural backgrounds clash.