Politics Protest falls silent, fear remains: Iran in a state of shock
The mass protests in Iran have died down for the time being, but the fear remains. The deadly violence of the security forces has left deep scars of intimidation and the streets are empty again.
15.01.2026, 14:58
SDA
While many in the country are trying to come to terms with what has happened, there is a growing fear of what could still come: a military conflict with the USA.
The population has been cut off from the internet for over a week, the digital curtain has been drawn. Although international calls have recently been possible again, incoming calls remain blocked. Millions of Iranians abroad are worried about their loved ones.
Is US President Donald Trump making good on his threats?
In the midst of the tense situation, many are turning their attention to Washington. US President Donald Trump has drawn red lines several times since the protests began at the end of December - but even after Tehran crossed them, there was no response. This is currently leading to growing uncertainty in Iran.
On Wednesday, developments in the region also caused concrete unrest: warnings from Western embassies, flight cancellations and indications of US military movements fueled the assumption that Trump could make good on his threats against the political leadership in Tehran after all.
War the dominant topic of conversation in Iran
On Thursday, a resident of Tehran reported on the phone that a possible war was the dominant topic of conversation in the city - be it through US military strikes or an intervention by Israel. Many families were talking nervously on the phone and had retreated to their homes. The memories of the war last June, when Israel and the USA bombed Iran, are still present.
A tougher course on the part of the USA is apparently also supported by parts of the protest movement and among Iranian exiles - in the hope of an end to the current political leadership. However, observers doubt whether limited airstrikes could actually achieve such a goal.
The extent of state violence is gradually becoming clearer
In recent days, the extent of state violence against the protests has gradually become clearer. Human rights groups in exile have reported serious attacks by state forces in numerous cities. The Oslo-based organization Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) put the number of demonstrators killed at 3,428, although the actual figure is likely to be significantly higher. These figures cannot be independently verified at present.
According to activists, a particularly serious case of state violence is said to have occurred in the northern Iranian city of Rasht, not far from the Caspian Sea. According to an eyewitness, demonstrators there surrendered to the security forces in the area of the traditional bazaar with their hands up - and are said to have been shot anyway. This information could not be verified at first either.
Images of many dead bodies in the morgues around the Iranian capital Tehran have also caused horror. Almost a week ago, a Persian-language fact-checking team based in Canada also analyzed a video from a suburb of the metropolis of millions, which is said to show injured demonstrators covered in blood on the floor of a building. The "Fatnameh" portal came to the conclusion that the footage is genuine and up-to-date.
Iran's foreign minister denies plans for executions
Meanwhile, the Iranian judiciary is also taking extremely harsh action against the protest movement. According to the US-based human rights network HRANA, more than 18,000 people have been arrested since the protests began at the end of December. The first trials have begun. In some cases, the defendants face the death penalty.
In an interview with US broadcaster Fox News, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied reports of imminent executions. The state is not planning any executions, he said. Trump had previously threatened Iran with a firm response in the event of executions of arrested protesters.
In the interview, Araghchi also reiterated the accusation that foreign "terrorist elements" had triggered the escalation of the protests. He also claimed that people had been deliberately killed in order to draw the USA into the conflict - and spoke of an alleged Israeli plan. He did not provide any evidence for his accusations. According to the government, dozens of security forces were killed.
Experts see repression as the state's fight for survival
Analysts in the USA see the security forces' crackdown as a fight for state survival. "The Iranian regime views the protests as a precursor to a revolution that it must crush completely and immediately," according to an analysis by the Critical Threats Project (CTP), which is supported by two Washington-based think tanks.
Other experts are skeptical about a political upheaval in Iran. When asked under what conditions a change of power would be realistic, political analyst Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group told the German Press Agency (dpa): "For fundamental change to occur, there must be cracks in the leadership and a viable alternative from within society. None of these conditions are currently met."
