Russia expert on Kiev's "victory plan" "Putin and Zelenskyi will not negotiate"
President Selenskyj claims to be able to end the war in 2025. But Russia is not on the brink of defeat and a negotiated solution is not in sight, says Russia expert Ulrich Schmid.
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- Zelensky has announced a plan with which Ukraine could end the war in 2025.
- Putin has already stated several times the conditions under which he will end the war in Ukraine.
- Russia expert Ulrich Schmid explains that Zelensky and Putin are not thinking of negotiating with each other. Instead, they are trying to secure their power base so that they can impose their peace solution on the other side.
Zelensky is demanding that Russia return all Ukrainian territory and cease its attacks. Why should Putin do this?
The addressee of Zelensky's plan is not Putin. The Russian president has made it sufficiently clear that he links his political fate to an outcome of the war that he can sell to his population as a victory. He presented his own plan immediately before the Bürgenstock Conference, but it amounts to a capitulation by Ukraine.
Who is Zelensky's plan aimed at?
Zelenskyi's aim is to gain support in the West, two months before the presidential election in the USA. He wants to secure his position. He also wants to influence the debate on whether the USA should allow Ukraine to attack Russian territory with its weapons.
His peace plan envisages the expansion of Ukrainian counter-attacks on Russia?
Selensky also calls the plan a victory plan. The wording is not yet known, but he wants to legitimize the Ukrainian attacks on Russia in order to build up a position of strength.
Is this diplomatic advance intended to impress Putin in the West?
No, Zelensky and his advisors are realists enough to see that they cannot impress Russia or change its behavior.
What is known about the content of the peace or victory plan?
Kiev wants security guarantees for Ukraine. This is nothing new. It wants support for the attacks on Russian territory. Zelensky intends to use the occupied Russian territory as a trump card in later negotiations in order to regain Ukrainian territory. He has explicitly said that he wants to force Russia into a ceasefire from a position of strength. He doesn't want to negotiate with Putin at all, but wants to get as many states as possible on Ukraine's side.
How far has he gotten with this?
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was in Kiev. That is an important signal. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, India has been an important buyer of Russian oil and is therefore also responsible for the fact that Russia is still doing relatively well economically.
About the person
Ulrich Schmid is Professor of Russian Culture and Society at the University of St. Gallen, specializing in Russian media theories and nationalism in Eastern Europe. The Zurich native has taught or teaches at the universities of Bern, Basel, Bochum and Oslo.
But there are also a number of important countries on Russia's side.
90 countries took part in the Bürgenstock Conference - a conference organized on Selensky's initiative. That is an important sign. Former Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba is also said to have been dismissed because he did not campaign energetically enough for support from the Global South.
Selensky has said that it is possible that the war will end in 2025. How realistic is that?
That depends on whether Ukraine receives permission to attack Russia with Western weapons. Whether it receives this is written in the stars. Zelensky is working on securing support from the USA that would outlast even Donald Trump's election victory.
Do you think it is possible that the USA will continue to support Ukraine under Trump in such a way that it can stand up to Russia?
That is likely to be difficult. After all, Trump has made a bold promise to end the war within 24 hours. He would probably withdraw support from Ukraine in order to force them to the negotiating table.
There, he would probably have to cede the annexed territories in order to receive security guarantees, as Trump's vice-candidate Vance has already communicated. Wouldn't that be the solution?
It is not impossible that this will happen. But the land-for-peace formula would be a huge moral blow to Ukraine and its Western allies. Moscow has sent several hundred thousand people to their deaths. Chancellor Scholz and President Macron also repeatedly emphasize that Russia must not win this war. Putin could definitely sell such a peace agreement as a victory.
How long will this war last?
I wouldn't dare make a prediction. Everything speaks against a negotiated solution. There are no negotiating partners who respect each other, no subject matter that they are prepared to negotiate and no common language. Putin denies that he is waging war in Ukraine. In his interpretation, he is defending Russia against an attack by NATO.
Would Zelensky negotiate with Putin?
No, he has issued a decree forbidding Ukraine to negotiate with Putin. Kiev can negotiate with Moscow, but not with Putin. The fact that Putin is not the signatory is unthinkable in Russia as long as he is in power. Putin portrays Zelensky as a drug-addicted Nazi. It is hard to imagine these two men sitting down at the same table. Putin doesn't even want to negotiate with Ukraine, but with the USA.
Putin wants to decide on Ukraine with the USA?
Yes, Putin wants to have the division of Ukraine recognized internationally in negotiations with the USA. The regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia and Kherson would become Russian. Crimea, which was annexed in 2014, is not yet internationally recognized either.
The positions of the two parties to the conflict are so far apart that negotiations could almost only fail. How do you see that?
For Ukraine, three points are still non-negotiable: Russia's complete withdrawal, reparations for the damage caused by Russian aggression and an international court, a new Nuremberg, in which Russia's actions during the war are judged. Russia, on the other hand, insists on the conquered territories and also on a complete end to sanctions. These positions are in fact completely irreconcilable.
How does Russia intend to win the war?
Putin is betting that Russia will have more staying power in the war of attrition.
Some accuse the West of only supporting Ukraine to the extent that it can withstand Russia, but not defeat it. Russia should not fall. Is there any truth in that?
The accusation is justified. The West's military support for Ukraine is always too little too late, i.e. too little and it always comes too late. Washington does not want regime change, does not want Putin to fall. Above all, the West does not want to become a party to the war. This red line is responsible for the fact that Kiev's allies are only supporting Ukraine step by step and in a salami-slicing tactic.
Is the Kremlin taking note of this?
Contrary to what is said publicly, there is a mutual, unspoken agreement: The West will not engage as a belligerent, Russia will not use its nuclear weapons. That is the balance of terror in this conflict between Russia and the West.
It could go on like this for years. Do we have to be prepared for this?
It's a question of resources. Both sides are desperately looking for new soldiers. Putin could easily mobilize more, but is shying away from doing so in order to maintain the appearance of normality in Russia. The war is unpopular and the mood could change. The partial mobilization in 2022 sent shockwaves through the country. Putin cannot afford this, even after his fantastic re-election in both senses of the word. Incidentally, the mood in the country is another reason why he is not deploying nuclear weapons. The Russian population would not approve of this.
How long will it take for Russia to run out of breath?
Economists have calculated that the war is costing Russia 110 billion dollars a year. That is about a third of what the country earns from the sale of oil every year. Russia will be able to cope with this war for a long time to come. As I said, it is important that Putin can maintain the appearance of normality.
So Ukraine's resources will be exhausted before then?
That depends on whether and to what extent the West supports Ukraine.
That means this war will never end.
As long as Putin is in the Kremlin, I see no possibility of the war ending.