Ukrainians conquer Russian territory Putin only has a few options left to stop the embarrassment

Sven Ziegler

17.8.2024

Russian soldiers near Kursk: how much longer can it go on?
Russian soldiers near Kursk: how much longer can it go on?
KEYSTONE

How can Russian President Vladimir Putin get a grip on the events surrounding Kursk? He doesn't have many options, as expert assessments show.

No time? blue News summarizes for you

  • Ukraine bites hard in Kursk.
  • Vladimir Putin has few options for getting events back under control.
  • Experts analyze what exactly Russia needs to do now.

Ukraine has been clinging on to the Russian region of Kursk since August 6. The Ukrainian army has been advancing deeper and deeper into the region and over 120,000 Russians have already had to be evacuated. According to Ukrainian figures, 1150 square kilometers and 82 communities in the Kursk region are already under its control. President Vladimir Putin is also suddenly proving vulnerable.

Russia seems paralyzed at the moment. Experts agree that the Kremlin must respond urgently on several levels in order to halt the advance of the Ukrainian armed forces and bring the situation under control.

According to Austrian military expert Markus Reisner, who works for the Austrian military and as a consultant, Russia must immediately reinforce its troops on the crucial front lines. "Russia is clearly trying to stabilize the front in the affected area southwest of Kursk. To this end, the Russian armed forces are slowly advancing troops in the direction of the Ukrainian front lines," writes Reisner in an analysis for the Austrian Armed Forces.

Securing strategic supply routes

However, it is unclear where Russia is taking these troops from. Based on the markings on the vehicles, Reisner assumes that "the Russians have withdrawn forces from the area north of Kharkiv at an operational level." It is not yet apparent that they have already withdrawn forces from the Donbass.

Another crucial point is securing strategic supply routes, such as the main roads and rail links in the region. Experts from the US think tank "Institute for the Study of War" point out that Russia must increasingly focus on protecting important logistical routes in order to slow down Ukrainian operations.

Ukraine is advancing in the Kursk region. (archive picture)
Ukraine is advancing in the Kursk region. (archive picture)
Efrem Lukatsky/AP/dpa

Satellite images already show new Russian fortifications in the region, including trenches and anti-tank barriers built along important highways. This is intended to prevent Ukrainian tank advances. According to the ISW expert report, these measures are necessary to restrict the freedom of movement of the Ukrainian armed forces and to secure Russian supply lines.

Experts such as John E. Herbst from the Atlantic Council also emphasize that this move is a major blow to Moscow's image. "It shows Russian citizens that the war is now being waged on its own soil and that the invasion of Ukraine also has an impact on Russia itself," says Herbst. In the long term, this moral dimension could lead to a decline in support for the war among the Russian population.

The Russians and Ukrainians are fighting bitterly on the ground.
The Russians and Ukrainians are fighting bitterly on the ground.
KEYSTONE

The experts at the Center for European Policy Analysis(CEPA) also believe that the attack will have moral and strategic repercussions. The Russian reaction to the Ukrainian advances was "slow and uncoordinated". In recent days, numerous military bloggers have criticized Ukraine's advances and the Kremlin's lack of response. This could also severely dampen morale within the Russian ranks.

That is why the Kremlin must now react and limit the damage as much as possible. Putin has already done this by declaring an "anti-terrorist operation" in Kursk. "The Kremlin has presumably chosen the option of an anti-terrorist operation in order to play down Ukraine's operation in Kursk," according to an ISW report. Putin wanted to avoid domestic political discontent or insecurity at all costs in order to secure his stability.