Knowledge Rapid ocean warming does not call climate models into question
The extreme warming of the oceans in 2023 and 2024 was not unforeseeable, according to a new study. This result reassures researchers, as it indicates that global warming did not accelerate unexpectedly as originally feared.
12.03.2025, 17:00
SDA
Between April 2023 and March 2024, global sea surface temperatures rose sharply, breaking previous temperature records by around 0.25 degrees Celsius - the biggest jump since measurements of these temperatures began. "This was unexpected for many scientists in climate research," said Jens Terhaar from the University of Bern to the Keystone-SDA news agency. He is the lead author of the study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature.
In the study, the researchers led by Terhaar showed that although this jump in temperature was unlikely, it can still be explained with the current understanding of global warming. According to the study, this was an extreme event that, statistically speaking, should only occur once in over 500 years.
This result means that the event was not completely unexpected. "But it could not have happened without climate change," Terhaar clarified.
Climate models seem to work
The result also means that the previous climate models work. "If this jump had not been reproducible with the existing models, that would have been very bad news," said the researcher. This would have called into question the ability of the models to assess future risks associated with man-made climate change.
The models are not only able to simulate the jump in temperatures, but also correctly predicted the end of record temperatures in the summer of 2024. According to the researcher, there is no additional unexpected acceleration of warming in any of the models in the years following the jump
If what the models predict continues to happen, the global surface temperature of the oceans will return to the expected long-term warming trend, according to Terhaar. It is highly likely that sea surface temperatures will have returned to the level before the sharp rise by September 2025.
