Politics Russia expert does not expect a quick attack against Nato
Historian Mattias Uhl believes that the warnings from German politicians and security experts about an imminent attack by Russia on Germany or another NATO country are exaggerated. "It would be unwise to pay attention to those experts who tend to dramatize without really knowing Russia's potential," says the expert in an interview with the German Press Agency in Moscow.
17.05.2026, 07:36
SDA
In his book "How strong is Russia really? The truth about Putin's military power" (Herder), he warns of a "fatal arms race" for the West. He pleads for deterrence with a sense of proportion and for dialog between the EU and Russia. The expert complains that numerous German experts on military and security issues have succumbed to Russian propaganda about the "second strongest army" in the world.
The German image is often based on misperceptions or myths. "This leads to an overestimation of Russian capabilities and harbors the danger of falling into a fatal arms spiral that will not bring NATO any advantages in the conflict with Russia."
Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin is trying to create the impression of the supposed strength of the Russian arms industry with weapons displays and missile tests. "But nothing is further from reality," Uhl emphasizes in his book.
NATO was successful in the Cold War with its "less is more" strategy
Even during the Cold War, simply amassing tanks and aircraft did not pay off. Instead, NATO scored points back then with its "less is more" strategy, with progress and technology, says Uhl, who lived in Russia for 20 years and worked there at the German Historical Institute in Moscow, which has since been declared "undesirable".
"Europe and the USA won the Cold War precisely because they didn't turn their countries into military camps," explains the expert, who works at the Max Weber Network Eastern Europe. "In fact, the West has already succeeded once in bringing down the Soviet Union and Russia without firing a shot." Even today, it is obvious that "NATO is a sleeping bear that Russia can only nibble on gently at best".
Uhl therefore considers statements by security experts that Russia could attack a NATO country as early as 2029 or even 2028 to be unrealistic. To deter Russia, he recommends long-range precision weapons such as missiles and further developments of the Taurus cruise missile. If the worst comes to the worst, they could then "destroy Russian military bases, airfields, depots and command bunkers with pinpoint accuracy".
Kremlin leader Putin has repeatedly described accusations that he is planning to attack a NATO country next after his invasion of Ukraine as "nonsense".
