Silent war has begun Russia heralds "Phase 0" - what the Kremlin is hiding behind it
According to military experts, Russia has reached a new stage in its strategic planning. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Kremlin has initiated what is known as "Phase 0".
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- The US institute ISW sees indications that Russia has entered "Phase 0" of a NATO conflict.
- Intelligence warnings, border provocations and military reforms are seen as indications.
- The aim is to stir up fear in the West and consolidate support at home.
According to Western military experts, Russia has launched a new phase of its war strategy. The US "Institute for the Study of War" (ISW) sees clear signs that Moscow has entered so-called "Phase 0" - an early preparatory stage that serves to psychologically and propagandistically influence the West and its own population.
According to the think tank, it is less about concrete military action and more about the strategic preparation of public perception.
Warnings are intended to sow doubt about the West
The analysts see a key indication in the latest claims made by the Russian foreign intelligence service SVR. At the weekend, the SVR announced that the UK was planning an attack on a naval vessel or a civilian ship in a European port together with pro-Ukrainian forces in order to blame Russia.
According to the ISW, such recurring warnings are typical elements of psychological warfare. They are intended to sow doubt about the West, reinforce conspiracy narratives and justify potential Russian aggression in advance.
At the same time, Moscow has noticeably intensified its provocations on the borders with NATO states. According to the ISW, reports of GPS jamming, acts of sabotage and the intrusion of Russian drones and fighter jets into Western airspace have increased in recent weeks.
Developments within the Russian armed forces too
These incidents are part of a deliberate calculation: Russia wants to stir up fear among the European population, weaken the resolve of the alliance and persuade the West to refrain from taking its own steps for fear of escalation.
Experts are also observing developments within the Russian armed forces that fit this pattern. The recent restructuring of the military districts on the western border, the expansion of bases near Finland and the creation of a strategic reserve are seen as signs that President Vladimir Putin is planning for the long term.
Instead of relying on a quick victory in Ukraine, he is preparing his country for a longer conflict with NATO.
Despite these warning signals, the ISW emphasizes that there are currently no indications of an imminent war between Russia and the Western military alliance.
Rather, "Phase 0" is a preparatory stage - an attempt to prepare the ground for future steps by psychological means and at the same time to prepare Russian society for an ongoing confrontation.
