On the brink of war in the Caribbean Sabre-rattling between Trump and Maduro - one will lose

Officially, Donald Trump justifies the largest deployment of US troops since 1991 with the fight against drugs. However, it is no secret that he is in favor of Venezuela's President Maduro. Now the conflict threatens to escalate.

First, the US military attacked alleged drug boats from Venezuela in the Caribbean and the Pacific Ocean. Then the Trump government classified the Venezuelan drug cartel "Cartel de los Sole" as a foreign terrorist organization in order to increase its military leeway.

In the meantime, Donald Trump has ordered a dozen warships, including the world's largest aircraft carrier "USS Gerald R. Ford", and more than ten thousand soldiers to the region: the signs are clearly pointing to escalation.

It is an escalation that has been looming. For months, Donald Trump has been escalating the tone towards Venezuela, or more precisely against the head of state Nicolás Maduro. It is no secret that Trump wants to drive the autocratic president of the oil-rich country out of office. The US president already tried to do so during his first term in office. Without success.

Special forces deployedTrump increases pressure on Maduro - probability of war over 75 percent?

In the meantime, Trump is putting the pressure on again and turning the escalation screw. There are increasing indications that the US government is considering a military strike against Venezuela.

Trump closes Venezuelan airspace, his defense minister comes under pressure because of the attacks on alleged drug boats, a secret phone call with Maduro and an unmistakable ultimatum: events have come thick and fast in recent days.

Here is a chronology of events, an outlook on what options Maduro still has and why the escalation is also risky for Donald Trump.

Relations between the USA and Venezuela are at an all-time low. There have been tensions for years and they have recently increased. The Trump administration has increased the reward to up to 50 million dollars (around 40 million francs) for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The USA accuses him of violating US drug laws. Maduro was bringing deadly drugs - cocaine - and violence into the USA.

Since September, US forces have repeatedly attacked boats allegedly used by drug smugglers in the Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific. According to US figures, at least 83 people have been killed and more than 20 ships have been hit.

Trump's shadow war on drugsFishermen in the Caribbean now fear for their lives

Six weeks after the first attacks by the US military on boats suspected of being loaded with drugs in the Caribbean, President Donald Trump is taking another step in the fight against Venezuela. He is authorizing actions by the CIA foreign intelligence service in the South American country. He did not say exactly what these operations would look like. At the same time, however, he announced that he now also wanted to combat drug smugglers on land.

The world's largest warship arrived in the Caribbean in mid-November. The USA emphasizes that it wants to use the "USS Gerald R. Ford" to combat drug smuggling. However, Venezuela sees the military presence as a threatening gesture.

Fighting drugs?Gigantic US aircraft carrier arrives in the Caribbean

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth then announced the "Southern Spear" military operation. Hegseth, whom the government of US President Donald Trump has been calling Secretary of War for some time, did not name any specific attacks or locations.

According to the New York Post, the US Navy has a fleet of at least eleven warships and 15,000 crew members deployed in the region. This includes special forces for a land invasion.

Amidst the sabre-rattling, news broke last Friday that war crimes may have been committed during the US attacks on suspected drug boats. A report in the "Washington Post" has set cross-party investigations in motion.

According to the report, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth allegedly gave the order to kill all crew members during an attack on 2 September. After the first bombardment, two crew members survived and clung to wreckage. "That would be a war crime if true," said Democratic Senator Tim Kaine from the US state of Virginia.

Hegseth wrote on X that this was "fake news". "Our current operations in the Caribbean are legal under both US and international law."

After weeks of escalating the tone against Maduro, Donald Trump decided at the weekend that no more planes would be allowed to fly in Venezuela. Trump announced that he was closing the airspace over Venezuela.

"To all airlines, pilots, drug dealers and human smugglers, please keep the airspace over and around Venezuela completely closed," Trump wrote on his social network Truth Social.

Trump does not have the authority to close the airspace of another country. According to international law, countries have the right to independently determine their own airspace, explains the International Air Traffic Controllers Association (IFATCA) on its website.

At least 32 deadHow legal is Trump's Caribbean crusade against drug cartels?

Venezuela condemned Trump's message in the strongest terms and described it as a "hostile act". The foreign ministry in Caracas also declared that no further deportation flights of migrants from the USA would be allowed into the country as a result of the statement.

According to Venezuelan figures, a total of almost 14,000 migrants have been sent back to Venezuela on 75 flights every week since March - even amid tensions with Washington. Most recently, a flight carrying 136 migrants repatriated from the US state of Arizona landed in Caracas on Friday, according to media reports.

Meanwhile, Trump confirmed on Sunday evening on his flight back from Florida, where he had been celebrating Thanksgiving, that he had recently spoken to Venezuela's President Nicolás Maduro. Trump would not comment on the phone call, which was first reported by the New York Times. "I wouldn't say it went well or badly," Trump said on board Air Force One.

Meanwhile, details of the conversation have apparently leaked out. The Miami Herald, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that the conversation escalated after a short time. Trump's blunt message to Nicolás Maduro: he could save himself and his closest confidants, but would have to leave the country immediately.

The talks ultimately failed because "Maduro had demanded a worldwide amnesty for all the crimes he and his group had committed". This was rejected by Trump, as was Maduro's demand to retain control of the armed forces. The third sticking point was the timing: Washington insisted on Maduro's immediate resignation, which Caracas rejected.

So far, the US president has kept all options open in the hope that external pressure could encourage a coup d'état against Nicolás Maduro.

He has little room for maneuver at the moment. He can hold out in Caracas and prepare for a US military strike. This is considered likely after the developments of the past few days.

The US would probably target infrastructure, Maduro does not have much to counter the military superiority. It is currently impossible to predict how a US attack would affect domestic politics.

The second option is to leave the country. He could do so with a free escort and immediate resignation, as Trump offered in the phone call. "By the way, we have given Maduro the opportunity to leave," Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin confirmed to US broadcaster CNN. "We said he could go to Russia or another country," he added.

There is still a third option, however unlikely it may seem at the moment. Maduro remains in office and simply sits out a possible US attack. For the Wall Street Journal, this scenario is at least conceivable.

"President (Donald) Trump is in a high-risk confrontation with Venezuela's (President) Nicolás Maduro and the dictator's supporters in Havana and Moscow. One of the two presidents will lose - and it will be Trump if Maduro is not overthrown one way or another," the paper writes in a commentary.

"But what if Maduro doesn't leave voluntarily? (...) If Trump withdraws his Caribbean fleet while Maduro is still in power, the Venezuelan ruler will have won."

With agency material.