Politics Shift to the right overshadows conservative victory in Portugal
A historic shift to the right overshadows the victory of Prime Minister Luís Montenegro's conservatives in the early parliamentary elections in Portugal. With counting well underway, Chega's right-wing populists were neck-and-neck for second place with the Socialist Party (PS), which had ruled the south-western European EU country with an absolute majority just over a year ago.
19.05.2025, 00:58
19.05.2025, 00:59
SDA
"We have killed the two-party system that has ruled for 50 years," Chega leader André Ventura cheered in front of TV cameras. The shouts of joy from hundreds of supporters made the statements of the 42-year-old law professor difficult to understand. The party, which only a year ago celebrated an increase from seven percent (2022) to 18 percent, has now climbed to around 23 percent, according to the electoral authorities in Lisbon.
There is also a firewall in Portugal
After counting around 98% of all constituencies, Montenegro's alliance Aliança Democrática (AD/Democratic Alliance/AD) received a good 33% of the vote. That is four points more than in the last vote in March last year and around ten percentage points more than the PS and Chega both received.
However, the AD once again fell well short of an absolute majority of 116 out of 230 parliamentary seats. Montenegro recently continued to rule out cooperation with the right-wing populists. The firewall on the Tagus River is as stable as in Germany. Unlike in Germany, however, a coalition between the two traditional parties close to the center is considered completely out of the question. The popular vacation destination is therefore once again facing an unstable minority government.
Third early election since 2022
It was the third early election since 2022, which had become necessary because Montenegro had clearly lost a vote of no confidence in March. The 52-year-old lawyer had been put under pressure by the opposition due to the opaque business dealings of a family company. Everything now indicates that the affair has not done him any harm.
Many important projects are on hold
Since Montenegro's failed vote in the Lisbon "Assembleia da República", Portugal now only has a caretaker government with limited powers. Several important projects are therefore on hold until a new government is formed. These include the privatization of the airline TAP, in which Lufthansa, among others, is interested.
The AD victory promises continuity. However, the talks to form the new government are likely to take some time again - as in 2024. In order for Montenegro to be reappointed by President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa as a candidate for the post of head of government, several parties, including the Socialists, must give assurances that they will not vote against Montenegro in the parliamentary vote. The only real coalition partner for the AD is probably the liberal Iniciativa Liberal, which was in fourth place, albeit by a wide margin.
What exactly triggered the political crisis?
The allegations against Montenegro relate to the company Spinumviva, which was founded by the trained lawyer in 2021. The consulting firm is said to have benefited from the prime minister's position to sign contracts with private companies. The opposition spoke of conflicts of interest.
Even if voters were apparently largely indifferent to the affair and the election campaign focused primarily on issues such as immigration and crime: This affair is probably far from over for Montenegro. It can be assumed that the left-wing opposition will continue to insist on a parliamentary commission of inquiry. Following an anonymous complaint, the public prosecutor's office is also looking into the case.
