Politics Social Democrats win first round of elections in Lithuania

A change of power is on the horizon in the Baltic EU and NATO member state Lithuania. According to preliminary results from the election commission in Vilnius, the Social Democrats have won the first round of parliamentary elections against the conservative Fatherland Union of Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte. The opposition party received 19.4 percent of the vote, while the CDU/CSU's partner party, which governs with two liberal parties, received 18 percent. It was followed by Nemunas' populist party Dawn (15 percent), which contested the election for the first time.

The Social Democrats thus lived up to their role as favorites in the pre-election polls. They are now aiming for a center-left coalition in the Baltic state bordering the Russian Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad and Moscow's wartime ally Belarus. Possible partners include the For Lithuania party (9.2 percent) and the Union of Farmers and Greens (7.0 percent).

"We hope that as soon as the results of the second round are confirmed, we will have enough seats to form a coalition of three parties," said party leader Vilija Blinkeviciute on Monday with a view to the second round of voting on October 27. The almost 2.4 million eligible voters will then decide on 63 outstanding direct mandates in a run-off election.

Head of government still hopeful

In the first round of voting, 70 seats were decided according to party lists, and eight candidates have already secured a direct mandate. With a voter turnout of 52 percent, a total of six parties made it over the five percent hurdle - including only one of Simonyte's two coalition partners. Nevertheless, the head of government saw no reason to concede defeat and emphasized that everything depended on the outcome of the second round of voting.

Regardless of the final outcome of the election, Lithuania's foreign and security policy is unlikely to change much. Both major parties are in favor of a clear western orientation towards the EU and NATO as well as resolute support for Ukraine in its defensive struggle against Russia. A change of government would primarily lead to domestic and socio-political changes.

Lithuania is particularly exposed in the geopolitical confrontation with Russia due to its location on NATO's eastern flank and views Moscow's war of aggression against Ukraine as a direct threat to its own security. Germany therefore wants to permanently station a combat-ready brigade of up to 5,000 Bundeswehr soldiers in Lithuania.