What if Trump removes protection? Suddenly Europe is talking about nuclear weapons - and fears the worst
Donald Trump's repeated doubts about Nato and nuclear deterrence are making his allies think about alternatives. The debate on future defense policy is in full swing.
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- Donald Trump's NATO scepticism has Europe thinking about alternative defense strategies.
- Germany is discussing the strengthening of nuclear sharing and closer cooperation with France and the UK.
- By purchasing the F-35 fighter jets, Switzerland has increased its dependence on the USA, which is controversial in domestic politics.
How safe is Europe still? Political Berlin is asking itself this question: the security guarantees provided by the USA since 1945 have been considered the cornerstone of defense in Germany. But Trump's repeated doubts about Article 5 of the NATO treaty and the extended nuclear deterrent are leading to a rethink in Germany's neighbor to the north.
This nuclear weapons debate in Germany is historically sensitive and was considered taboo for decades. However, according to the Bertelsmann Foundation, security policymakers are now openly discussing what should happen "if a US president like Donald Trump withdraws the nuclear umbrella over Europe".
Several scenarios are being discussed. Some voices are proposing a joint European nuclear arsenal, for example. France in particular has repeatedly offered a strategic dialog on its force de frappe. President
Macron already suggested extending French nuclear protection to Europe in 2020 - and is currently repeating his offer. Berlin is also openly toying with the idea of nuclear weapons. In February, CDU leader Friedrich Merz called for talks with Paris and London on extended nuclear protection for Germany.
"A thousand nuclear warheads"
Some commentators even toyed with the provocative idea that Germany should acquire or develop its own nuclear weapons. For example, the purchase of "a thousand nuclear warheads" from US stocks was jokingly mentioned in the current debate.
However, efforts to purchase nuclear weapons are regarded as sensitive: Experts firmly reject such proposals. They point to Germany's binding non-proliferation obligations: The 2+4 Treaty of 1990 stipulates the permanent renunciation of NBC weapons - as does the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
"The idea of a German nuclear deterrent is completely unrealistic," emphasizes Julia Berghofer from the European Leadership Network, for example. This assessment is shared by many security policy analysts: Germany should focus more on conventional armament and strengthening existing alliances rather than on its own bomb.
More savings potential for conventional armed forces
It is therefore more likely that nuclear sharing within NATO will be optimized. Germany already hosts US nuclear warheads (B61) in Büchel and participates in NATO nuclear strike planning. Keeping this deterrent credible is a priority.
The analysts at the independent German Institute for International and Security Affairs therefore recommend two points: Firstly, Europe must "present a more united front" to Washington and promote the value of the NATO alliance in the USA across party lines. Secondly, conventional alternatives should be sought within the alliance in order to act as a deterrent.
Security expert Dr. Liviu Horovitz from the SWP also believes it is unlikely that Trump would cut nuclear protection for purely financial reasons. He says: "Money can be saved much more in the conventional sector than in the nuclear sector". The US nuclear bombs in Europe will probably remain for the time being because they benefit Washington politically and are comparatively inexpensive.
Switzerland is also dependent on the USA
And where does Switzerland actually stand? It too will not remain unaffected by the new arms pressure. As early as 2021 - triggered by the changed threat situation in Europe - the Federal Council decided to replace its ageing fighter aircraft fleet with 36 state-of-the-art F-35A Lightning IIs.
The F-35 choice was extremely controversial domestically. In a referendum in September 2020, the electorate only approved new fighter jets by a wafer-thin majority. Critics warned of dependencies and a loss of sovereignty: the fully US-made technology threatened a "sell-out of data sovereignty" to the USA.
In fact, the entire communication and data infrastructure of the F-35 depends on US systems - without close cooperation with the USA, Switzerland can hardly ensure maintenance, updates and operation.
On the one hand, the F-35 is considered to be powerful and future-proof, which brings the Swiss Air Force technologically up to NATO standards. On the other hand, long-term dependence on the USA remains an issue. Experts agree that the reality is clear. Switzerland is dependent on the USA due to the purchase of the F-35: Software updates or data processing will run via the Loockeed-Martin Group.
"Europe must wake up"
Politicians in the rest of Europe are also reacting by rearming and joining forces. An often quoted comment sums it up: "Europe needs to wake up and look after itself". This does not mean completely replacing the USA, but it does mean having a plan B in your pocket.
According to an SWP expert, the strategic motto is: Europe should "expand its own defense capabilities in a way that accommodates American interests" - in the hope of maintaining a minimum level of US involvement.
The transatlantic security relationship is more complex than ever in the Trump II era. Europe is balancing between gratitude for 70 years of protection and the newly awakened awareness of having to cope alone in case of doubt. It remains to be seen how NATO will develop.
One thing is clear: the European states are investing more in defense than they have since the Cold War, primarily to appease Trump's America - and at the same time never to be completely dependent on him again.
