Suddenly Iran's missiles reach 4000 kilometers

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• Iran has fired two ballistic missiles at the US-British base Diego Garcia, missing the target but showing that it has ballistic missiles that fly much further than many thought.
• Diego Garcia is a strategically central military base in the Indian Ocean that was previously beyond the known range of Iranian missiles.
• Experts see the attack as a demonstration of power and an indication of the changing balance of power in Iran and possible missile ranges as far as Europe.

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According to state television, Iran fired two ballistic missiles at a military base on the island of Diego Garcia, which is jointly used by the UK and the USA. Neither of the two missiles hit the military base in the Indian Ocean, the Wall Street Journal and CNN reported, citing senior US officials. According to the report, one failed during the flight and the second was intercepted. Nevertheless, the firing so far away from Iran is an indication that Iran has more military potential left than some had thought.

Diego Garcia is the largest atoll in the Chagos archipelago in the Indian Ocean. The area is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory and is used militarily by Great Britain and the USA. It is located far from the major land masses, several hundred kilometers south of the Maldives and far west of Australia. Great Britain occupied the Chagos Islands in the 1960s and resettled around 2000 people. The British government has promised to return the archipelago to Mauritius in 2025.

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The base has a runway around 3.6 km long. It is designed for heavy strategic bombers. The port can accommodate large aircraft carrier groups and supply ships, and heavy military equipment can be quickly shipped to the Persian Gulf in the event of a crisis.

There is a ground station for the global navigation satellite system GPS as well as space surveillance and communication facilities on the island. Because the base is remote and yet allows for long ranges, it is considered a key strategic point of the US-British military presence in the Indian Ocean.

Diego Garcia was previously considered an untouchable hinterland for Iran's army. The base is located almost 4000 kilometers southeast of the Iranian coast. This distance is of great importance in terms of military strategy. Until now, it was outside the officially confirmed range of the Iranian missile arsenal of 2000 kilometers.

There have long been fears that Iran has the technological means to double the radius beyond the current 2000 kilometers. Iranian missiles could then theoretically reach the whole of Europe.

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Iranian state media presented the attack as proof of military strength. The Fars news agency, which is close to the Revolutionary Guards, claimed that Iran could also reach Europe. Iran's missile capabilities were still in place and refuted US President Donald Trump's claim that they had been 100 percent destroyed.

The Revolutionary Guards declared on state radio that they only spoke the language of military strength with their opponents. This strength had also been demonstrated in the Strait of Hormuz. The Guards claimed that Israel, the USA and the West had lost their prestige and no longer played a role in the region. "We have control of the skies above your heads," they continued.

Observers see this as demonstrative self-confidence and an attempt to underline the domestic political power of the Revolutionary Guards. After three weeks of war, Israel and the USA have air sovereignty over Iran.

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Middle East expert Nawaf al-Thani writes on the online platform X: "The real question is not whether the missile was intercepted. Rather, the issue is that Iran may have demonstrated a range that goes far beyond what most of the world would have expected. A range of 4000 kilometers fundamentally changes the situation."

Danny Citrinowicz, one of the leading experts on Iran, explains on X that the latest missile attack is a direct result of the changing balance of power in Iran - in particular the increasing dominance of the Revolutionary Guards and the death of Revolutionary Leader Ali Khamenei. "Despite his deep ideological hostility towards the West, Khamenei exercised great restraint in deploying the Iranian armed forces. This restraint is now no longer guaranteed."

The Israeli Iran expert Raz Zimmt wrote on X: "It is now obvious that Iran is trying to use the conflict as a strategic opportunity - not only to prevent future attacks against the country, but also to shape a new regional order." According to his analysis, Tehran wants to use deterrence to persuade its neighbors to end the US military presence in the region.