More exports to the USA Swiss companies defy Trump's tariff hammer - but appearances are deceptive

Swiss exports to the USA rose sharply in September. Has US President Donald Trump's tariff hammer already been digested? An expert assesses the situation.

Since August, many Swiss products have been subject to a punitive tariff of 39%. US President Donald Trump announced his tariff hammer on Swiss National Day of all days. And yet, after a slump in August, exports across the Atlantic surprisingly shot up in September. Has the customs shock already been digested?

As the latest figures from the Federal Office for Customs and Border Security (FOCBS) show, Swiss exports rose by a total of 3.4% to CHF 22.8 billion in September. In real terms - i.e. price-adjusted - this still represents an increase of 2.7 percent.

Particularly astonishing: exports to the USA soared by 43%, following a slump of more than 20% in August. This was the highest monthly figure since the beginning of the year.

According to the BAZG, this strong increase is mainly due to the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Their exports increased massively in terms of value, although the quantity exported actually fell. The reason: individual batches with a high value of goods.

"Monthly figures are difficult to interpret at the moment. In anticipation of tariffs, many sectors have been stocking up - other sectors are hardly delivering any more and are now drawing on these stocks," confirms Claude Maurer, Chief Economist at BAK Economics, when asked by blue News. On the other hand, industries that have to pay high customs duties are hardly delivering any more and are drawing on their stocks.

In other words: September was an upward outlier - driven by special effects, not by a sustainable trend reversal.

Trump tariffs are having an effect - but not everywhere

Machinery, electrical appliances, metals and luxury goods such as watches are particularly affected by the tariff hammer. The consequences quickly became apparent: in August, exports across the Atlantic slumped by more than a fifth - to their lowest level since the end of 2020.

Maurer also speaks of "business-damaging tariffs, which currently only affect around 50 percent of the export volume". The reason: the punitive tariffs do not apply to the pharmaceutical industry. The so-called MEM industries, the mechanical, electrical and metal industry sector and Switzerland's largest industrial employer, are quite different. Maurer: "The situation is bad for the MEM industries. Their slump is massive and exports are currently several hundred million francs down on the previous year."

In the third quarter, Switzerland exported goods worth a total of CHF 11.7 billion to the USA - around 8 percent less than in the previous quarter. The export surplus fell from CHF 9.4 billion to CHF 8.6 billion. Compared to the beginning of the year (15.3 billion), this represents a decline of a whopping 44 percent.

Nevertheless, the surplus remains high. As a reminder: Trump cited the trade surplus as the main reason for the introduction of punitive tariffs. He accuses Switzerland of benefiting disproportionately from trade relations.

US slump in watch exports

The Swiss watch industry is also suffering from Trump's tariff policy. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), exports fell by 3.1% to CHF 1.99 billion in September. Exports to the USA even plummeted by 56 percent - following a drop of 20 percent in August.

The US market has been a problem area since the introduction of punitive tariffs in August. Many manufacturers had filled their stocks in the months leading up to this in order to avoid punitive tariffs. Now they are selling off instead of producing.

According to Maurer, demand for watches is also weak globally. The customs duties are further exacerbating the situation. Nevertheless, other regions are providing relief: significantly more watches are once again being exported to Hong Kong (+21%), China (+18%) and the UK (+15%). The UK even became the most important sales market for the Swiss watch industry.

Gold loses its shine - pharma remains a rock in the surf

Gold exports to the USA, which were the subject of much discussion just a few months ago, have lost their luster. At the beginning of the year, the value soared to over 13 billion Swiss francs, but since then the situation has normalized: CHF 240 million was exported in August and CHF 650 million in September - a fraction of previous values.

Meanwhile, Swiss gold is unlikely to be a problem for Trump - especially as fears that gold exports could also fall under the customs regime have now proved unfounded.

Claude Maurer attaches much greater importance to the role of the pharmaceutical industry. He describes its influence as "massive".

In fact, the pharmaceutical industry has almost single-handedly absorbed the decline in other sectors. Although its exports fell by 7.2 percent to 35.8 billion Swiss francs in the third quarter, its share of total exports remains outstanding.

The strong franc remains a challenge

In addition to customs duties, the Swiss franc is the export industry's second major opponent. It is at record levels in both nominal and real terms. Maurer takes a differentiated view of the situation: "The franc is record strong, but the decisive factor is the speed of the appreciation - and this was only high for the US dollar."

The goods that are shipped to the USA are generally not very price-elastic, such as pharmaceuticals or luxury watches. "Accordingly, the strength of the franc is one of the problems that companies can deal with," says Maurer.

The situation is different for machine manufacturers and suppliers who invoice in dollars and have tight margins. Here, an appreciation can quickly become a problem.

Uncertainty paralyzes investments

Maurer emphasizes that the economic consequences go beyond tariffs alone: "Customs policy has an impact on investment sentiment through uncertainty. Uncertainty is poison for investments." Many companies are hesitant to embark on larger projects as long as it is unclear whether Trump will tighten his trade policy further.

Other economists have a similar view of the situation. Daniel Hartmann from Bantleon warns not to overestimate the monthly movements: "Individual monthly figures should not be overinterpreted. August was probably a downward slip."

Susan Joho from Julius Baer at least sees a slight easing in relations with the USA: "From Trump's point of view, Switzerland's declining trade surplus is probably going in the right direction. The high surplus at the beginning of the year was mainly a pull-forward effect due to the expected tariff increases."