Iran Syria faces uncertain future after lightning change of power
After the sudden fall of Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, the country is facing an uncertain future.
09.12.2024, 05:23
SDA
The flight of Assad and his family to Russia offers the chance for a new beginning after decades of dictatorship and almost 14 years of civil war with hundreds of thousands dead and millions displaced. Much depends on whether the various rebel groups can agree on a distribution of power - or whether a power vacuum leads to renewed violence and Syria, with its ethnic and religious minorities, descends into chaos. What follows in the country after Assad's fall could trigger new conflicts in the region.
UN Security Council discusses Syria
Geir Pedersen, the United Nations Special Envoy for Syria, warned to "avoid bloodshed". He called for dialog and the preparation of a transitional government in the country, where armed forces and foreign powers have long struggled for influence. The UN Security Council in New York intends to discuss the situation in Syria behind closed doors today at Russia's request. The consultations are to take place in the evening German time, as the German Press Agency has learned from diplomatic circles.
Russia grants Assad asylum
Rebels led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took control of the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday night, heralding the end of more than two decades of Assad's rule. According to activists, 910 people have died since the rebels launched their major offensive. Among them are 138 civilians, including several children, reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Meanwhile, Russia granted Assad and his family asylum on humanitarian grounds, according to the Kremlin.
Mixed reactions in the region
"We are seeing a big change in the region. Turkey has become stronger, Russia has become weaker, Iran has become weak," the Wall Street Journal quoted a Syrian opposition politician as saying. "But it is the Syrians who will play a big role now, not like before," he said.
Turkey called on the international community to support an orderly transition in Syria. Ankara bears the main responsibility for ensuring that this process leads to more stability and the return of refugees, Charles Lister, Director of the Syria Program at the Middle East Institute, told the newspaper. The aim must be to create a new Syria and prevent a new civil war from breaking out.
Syria must remain safe and stable, and conflicts that "lead to chaos" must be avoided, said Jordan's King Abullah II, according to the court. He respects the "will and decisions of the Syrian people". Many Syrian refugees live in Jordan, which borders Syria. Egypt's Foreign Ministry called for a comprehensive political process to create a "new phase of internal harmony" and peace.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry announced that the Kingdom stands by the Syrians and their decisions "in this crucial phase of Syrian history". The unity and cohesion of Syria must be protected, it said. The Foreign Ministry in Qatar called for "national institutions and state unity" to be preserved in order to prevent the country from drifting into chaos. Qatar also stands "unwaveringly" behind the Syrian people and their decisions.
Biden: US soldiers to remain in Syria
Meanwhile, outgoing US President Joe Biden announced that American soldiers will remain in Syria until further notice. The USA would not allow the terrorist militia IS to use the power vacuum there to expand its own influence again, said Biden. He also sees the fall of Assad as a consequence of his own foreign policy. "The most important supporters of Assad were Iran, Hezbollah and Russia". However, their support has recently collapsed, "because all three are much weaker today than they were when I took office", said Biden.
The US government would support Syria's neighboring countries, including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel, if a threat were to emanate from Syria during the transition phase, Biden continued. He would speak with heads of state and government in the region in the coming days and send senior officials there, the US President said. "This is a moment of considerable risk and uncertainty". At the same time, however, it is the best opportunity in generations for the Syrians to shape their own future.
Israel deploys troops in buffer zone
Meanwhile, Israel has moved its armed forces into the buffer zone on the occupied Golan Heights and other locations, including on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon. "Since yesterday evening, we have been fighting on four fronts. The ground forces are fighting on four fronts: against terrorism in Judea and Samaria, in the Gaza Strip, in Lebanon, and last night we moved troops into Syrian territory," said Israel's Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi. "We will not allow any hostile force to position itself on our border," emphasized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
According to activists, the Israeli air force flew attacks in the area of the Syrian capital Damascus after the fall of Assad. The military attacked near the military airport, reported the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. There were also attacks in eastern Syria. According to the report, weapons depots belonging to the Syrian military and pro-Iranian militias were hit. According to media reports, Israel's air force had previously attacked a chemical weapons factory out of concern that the weapons could fall into the hands of rebels. The Israeli army did not comment on this.
Iran: resistance against Israel continues
Meanwhile, Iran emphasized that the fall of Assad would not stop the resistance against Israel. "The change of power in Syria could affect the further course of the resistance front against the Zionist regime (Israel) in the short term, but definitely not stop it," said Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The resistance against Israel is "an ideological mission and not a classic war" and will therefore continue, he told state broadcaster Irib.
War researchers: Putin's credibility damaged
According to the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the sudden fall of the Russian-backed Syrian ruler Assad has also shaken the credibility of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin among his allies. Putin has protected authoritarian rulers in various countries from protests against their rule in order to promote his goal of a multipolar world order with the help of foreign partners and to undermine the supremacy of the USA, writes the institute in a recent assessment of the situation.
"Russia's inability or deliberate failure to strengthen Assad's regime despite the rapid advance of opposition forces across the country will also damage Russia's credibility as a reliable and effective security partner around the world," the analysis states.
