Russia Syria's ruler toppled - How does Turkey benefit?
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made no secret of which horse he is backing ahead of the rapid fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He said on Friday that he hoped the rebels would march all the way to Damascus. Just two days later, Bashar al-Assad's decades-long rule was history - and Turkey appears to be one of the winners of the events.
09.12.2024, 14:04
SDA
Turkey positions itself early in the civil war
The 70-year-old Erdogan, himself in power for more than 20 years, can look back on a turbulent relationship with Assad. While the two still spent their vacations together with their families in Bodrum, Turkey, in 2008, the relationship changed abruptly after the civil war began in 2011. Erdogan now called Assad a "murderer", supported rebel groups and took in more than three million Syrian refugees in his country.
Erdogan has now come under domestic political pressure because of the refugees. He is pursuing two main goals in Syria, which may now be easier to achieve after Assad's fall: A return of Syrians who have fled and the weakening of Kurdish militias - including the unpopular Kurdish autonomous region in north-eastern Syria. However, Assad had rejected the normalization sought by Turkey - to the displeasure of Erdogan.
Is Turkey behind the offensive?
The rebel offensive against Assad was led by the Islamist group Haiat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Turkey denies having anything to do with it. However, observers in the country assume that Ankara has at least given the green light.
The NATO country Turkey has long been supporting the rebel group Syrian National Army (SNA) in the civil war, including militarily, and is occupying border areas in the north with their support. Assad, on the other hand, has received significant support from Russia and Iran.
The Islamist HTS is also listed as a terrorist organization in Turkey, but according to experts it coordinates with the SNA rebels and the Turkish military. Ankara has also sent aid supplies to the HTS-controlled region of Idlib for years, maintains military posts there and negotiated a ceasefire for Idlib with Russia in 2020. In addition to contacts with the Turkish military, HTS is also said to have links to Qatar, which has a long-standing reputation for supporting Islamist groups in the region.
Turkey becomes the most influential player in Syria
Turkey knew that something was going on in Syria, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan admitted at the weekend. Turkish analyst Fehim Tastekin sees closer links and says: "HTS was supported, protected and favored by Turkey for years." However, it is questionable how strong Ankara's influence on the Islamists will be in the future, as HTS is gradually freeing itself from its dependence, according to Tastekin.
In any case, according to expert Ömer Özkizilcik from the Atlantic Council think tank, Turkey will become the most influential foreign player in the neighboring country. "Turkey is likely to use the current situation in Syria to negotiate more effectively with Moscow and Tehran and has the opportunity to reach an agreement with the future administration of Donald Trump," he writes. A US administration under Trump that seeks a withdrawal of US troops from Syria would have to cooperate with Turkey.
Erdogan wants a "security corridor" against Kurdish militias
The US is still holding its protective hand over the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), led by the Kurdish militia YPG, which controls large areas in north-eastern Syria. While the YPG is an important partner for the USA in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) in Syria, Turkey sees the militia as an offshoot of the banned Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) - and therefore as a terrorist organization.
Erdogan has therefore long been talking about a so-called "security corridor" along the border in order to settle refugees there and push back the Kurdish militias. The current power shifts have been used by Turkish-backed rebels to advance against the YPG. According to the state news agency Anadolu, the rebels have now captured the important city of Manbij from the Kurdish militias - and Turkish television is already showing maps that show the entire border strip with Turkey under pro-Turkish control.
Return of refugees not without stability
However, Turkey's main concern is stability in its neighboring country. Much now also depends on whether the various rebel groups can agree on a distribution of power. The relationship between HTS and Kurdish militias, for example, is considered problematic. The rebel alliance would have to present a clear plan for Syria in which the Kurds are given a say and the right to shape the country.
According to expert Özkizilcik, only relative security in Syria could provide incentives for the hoped-for return of refugees. In his opinion, the country's second largest city, Aleppo, has the necessary infrastructure to accommodate returnees. Most of the approximately three million refugees in Turkey come from Aleppo. Ankara has already announced its intention to invest in reconstruction in Syria.
Even if refugees are already queuing at Turkey's border crossings to get to Syria: There will probably not be a mass return for the time being. Many Syrians have made a life for themselves in Turkey and their children go to school there. The refugee deal with the EU, through which Ankara receives financial support for Syrians, among other things, is also likely to remain unaffected for the time being. However, should Syria descend into chaos, this could lead to a new exodus of refugees. In this case, Turkey would probably try to take care of the refugees in Syria in the border region.
