Tense calm in Iran - growing concern about US attacks

Developments in the region, such as warnings from diplomatic missions, but also measures taken by the US military and flight cancellations, have triggered fears that US President Donald Trump could make good on his threats against the political leadership in Tehran.

The US began evacuating hundreds of soldiers from the Al-Udeid military base on the outskirts of the Qatari capital Doha, as reported by US broadcasters CBS and NBC News. It was a "precautionary measure", they said. The US embassy in Doha later advised people to avoid unnecessary trips to the military base.

Al-Udeid in Qatar is the largest US military base in the Middle East and would probably play a key role in a possible conflict with Iran. Tehran's armed forces fired missiles at it last year in response to US attacks against Iran's nuclear program.

The US embassy in Kuwait temporarily banned all non-essential staff from visiting four military bases in the country. According to initially unconfirmed media reports, Iran closed its airspace overnight. In view of the tense situation in the region, the UK warned its citizens against non-essential travel to Israel.

Trump: We were told that killings in Iran will stop

Trump had previously threatened Iran with a decisive response in the event that arrested demonstrators were executed. On Wednesday, he stated that the US had received information that there were no plans for executions in Iran. "We have been told that the killings in Iran will stop," the Republican said at the White House. "They are stopping, and there is no plan for executions or an execution." He said he hoped it was true.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later said in an interview on US broadcaster Fox News that there was no plan for executions at all.

Trump's statements made an immediate attack on targets in Iran appear less likely. However, the US attacks on the nuclear program last year also came as a surprise - just hours after Trump had spoken of negotiations with Iran.

Iran's justice minister places protesters under general suspicion

Meanwhile, a tense calm prevailed in Iran. This brought fears of retaliation and punishments against demonstrators to the fore. "This was no longer a protest at all, but a full-scale internal war," said Iran's Justice Minister Amin-Hussein Rahimi. The judiciary had already announced "maximum severity" last week.

The current wave of protests was triggered at the end of December by a severe economic crisis in Iran. The government initially appeared willing to compromise. However, the demonstrations quickly developed into political protests against the Islamic Republic's authoritarian system of rule.

Last Thursday and Friday, the country experienced the worst mass protests and unrest in years. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the Shah who was overthrown in 1979, had called for demonstrations throughout the country.

Human rights activists document state violence

In the meantime, the protests have declined significantly - probably also as a reaction to the government's brutal approach and the threat of draconian punishments. It was questionable whether they would regain momentum for the Iranian weekend, which begins this Thursday evening.

The government has not yet published official casualty figures. Foreign Minister Araghchi spoke to Fox News of hundreds of dead. Human rights organizations abroad are documenting the extent of the violence as best they can despite internet bans. The Oslo-based group Iran Human Rights (IHRNGO) put the number of demonstrators killed at 3,428, although the actual figure could be significantly higher. The figures cannot be independently verified at present.

The organization also referred to state media reports that at least 121 police officers and security forces were killed in the unrest. The state mobilized supporters for large funeral processions in the capital Tehran on Wednesday.

Expert: no change without a viable alternative

Against the backdrop of state violence, Trump has already threatened Iran several times with intervention. According to one expert, the USA could also consider cyber attacks in addition to air strikes. Targeted attacks on officers or paramilitary units are also conceivable, according to an analysis by the Chatham House think tank. A former Iran expert at the US State Department named cyberattacks, diplomatic pressure and additional sanctions in the oil sector - the lifeline of the Iranian state - as possible steps.

A tougher US course is apparently also being welcomed by parts of the protest movement and some Iranians in exile in the hope of bringing about the end of the country's leadership. However, there are doubts as to whether limited US airstrikes could achieve this at all.

When asked under what conditions a political overthrow would be possible, political analyst Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group told the German Press Agency: "For a successful regime change, you need cracks at the top and a viable alternative from below. Neither of these conditions currently exist."

Iran cut off from the internet for a week

Iran's security apparatus is portraying the mass protests primarily as foreign interference. The population has been cut off from the internet for over a week. Since Tuesday, however, Iranians have been able to call abroad again and reach family and contacts there. Callbacks to Iranian numbers are currently not possible. This is also making the work of journalists who rely on information from the country more difficult.