Ex-advisor goes after Trump "The regime will fall on Tuesday", says Maybrit Illner's expert

In the "Maybrit Illner" panel discussion on the topic of "War in Iran - boundless threat?", it became clear how great the concern about geopolitical deals and escalation is. Only the desire for a quick end to the war is probably even greater.

"You need a psychiatrist to find out why": The fact that US President Donald Trump's former security adviser John Bolton is no longer on good terms with his former employer is nothing new. In an interview with Maybrit Illner, which the presenter recorded 15 minutes before the show on the topic of "War in Iran - a limitless threat?", Bolton also had nothing good to say about the US attack on Iran.

"Part of the problem is that it's not clear what Trump is doing," he criticized. Moreover, the Republican had not informed the American people, Congress, his international allies or the opposition in Iran of his plans, let alone prepared them. However, he was worried about something else: if Putin were to propose a deal to Trump in one of the many phone calls to stop supplying military information to Iran in return for the latter ending its support for Ukraine. "Then Trump's ears will prick up," Bolton warned, warning that he could possibly accept the deal and cause lasting damage.

"We want to breathe, we want to live"

It is a concern that was also shared by the guests in the studio: "The potential pressure on the Americans from the Russian side is not enormous, but it is there," said Katrin Eigendorf, special international correspondent for ZDF. Especially if oil and gas prices continue to rise, the domestic political pressure on Trump to enter into such deals will increase in the current US election year, added economist Stormy-Annika Mildner from the Aspen Institute Germany. The war is already having a strong economic impact on the USA, but also on Europe - and therefore on the already struggling German economy.

"I don't have the feeling that the German people are taking to the streets because of this," said Michel Abdollahi, a German-Iranian journalist and moderator, who expressed great support for Iranians: "They are putting up with it." In general, he was of the opinion that the military actions by the USA and Israel were not haphazard. Rather, he saw the "building of a narrative (...) that they want to prepare the Iranian population for day X."

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This could be closer than expected. After all, the traditional fire festival (note: Chaharshanbe Suri or Chaharshanbe Suri) will be celebrated next Tuesday. "This is a day that has always led to unrest in Iran. There are firecrackers and young people are out on the streets. It is possible that if people take to the streets on this day to let out their anger, something will happen," he said. Especially as the end of the fasting month of Ramadan this year falls almost on the same day as the New Year according to the Iranian calendar in a "very unique constellation".

Michel Abdollahi ruled out that things in the region would continue as before: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would not allow it, but in addition, the economic pressure and the hatred and anger towards the Islamic regime within Iran were also too great: "As Iranians, we are just waiting for people to say: 'Take to the streets so that we can be liberated from this system'," he emphasized. "We want to breathe, we want to live."

Middle East expert Hans-Jakob Schindler: "The Strait of Hormuz is the Achilles heel of the Iranians."

For Armin Laschet (CDU), Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, this would be a "dream": if the regime in Iran were to fall, the entire Middle East would be reorganized, he hopes: "Everyone wants the war to end."

Middle East and terrorism expert Hans-Jakob Schindler doubted whether the current strategy would achieve the former in particular. The current aim is to bring about regime change through air strikes so that sufficient numbers of people from the security apparatus defect to the opposition side. In return, the Iranian regime would have a plan to drive up the economic costs for the USA and the world so that they would end the war for economic reasons. In his opinion, it should not come to that, because: "If the regime survives, we will see chaos."

Interview with geopolitics expert"This once again shows the naivety or cluelessness of German and European politicians"

All eyes are already on the Strait of Hormuz, the bottleneck for oil transportation. "As long as the Iranians can still get oil out, but the rest can't, it's 100% leverage on the Iranian side," Schindler sums it up. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz is also "the Iranians' Achilles' heel", emphasized the Middle East expert. If the Iranians are also hindered, "it will be a matter of days before the regime is completely bankrupt".

Abdollahi therefore already sees "cracks" in the system: "The new revolutionary leader Modschtaba Khamenei has been nowhere to be found for twelve days. State radio has been hit. Meanwhile, Basij militias are being hit by drones at their checkpoints on the open road. And if at some point the money stops flowing, the simple Basij militias and the Revolutionary Guards will have nothing to eat."