Trump wants to test nuclear weapons "The USA and Russia are the slow losers"
President Trump wants the USA to test nuclear bombs again. Security expert Remo Reginold does not believe that such a test will actually take place. The announcement is more of a symptom than a strategy.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- President Trump has announced that the USA will carry out nuclear tests again.
- Security policy expert Remo Reginold sees the announcement as a distraction and a sign of the USA's dwindling importance in terms of security policy.
- Nevertheless, the expert believes that Trump's symbolic policy is effective.
It is one of those Trump moments: The US would conduct nuclear tests again, the president announces. The last time the US Army detonated a nuclear warhead for test purposes was in 1992. Since then, it has relied exclusively on computer simulations.
This raises a number of questions: What does President Trump want to achieve with his announcement? How will the other nuclear powers react? What does this mean for global security? blue News asked foreign and security policy expert Remo Reginold from the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA).
What does it mean that the USA wants to carry out nuclear tests again?
For now, it's just a signal. There is no specificity, no concrete plan. It is more of a bomb in the information space. It is a departure from long-standing policy, but by the time such tests could be carried out, Trump will no longer be in office. And it's not yet clear exactly what Trump meant: Nuclear bomb tests above ground or underground, missile tests, testing new technologies? And we are falling for it.
What is the US government trying to communicate?
At SIGA, we think that Trump wants to distract us from other things, such as China's trade policy trump card, the various Asia summits, the failure to achieve peace in Ukraine and a lasting solution in the Middle East. Just like the flare-up of discussions about a possible third term in office. Whenever he brings this up, caution is required as to what this sham discussion is trying to distract from.
How likely is it that a nuclear test by the US Army will actually take place in the foreseeable future?
It is small. However, since it has not been specified what it is supposed to be about, it could ultimately also mean missile tests, apart from real nuclear bomb tests, which would then be far less spectacular. A great deal of domestic political and legal resistance is already to be expected. This shot will backfire.
How long does it take from the order to carry out a test to the detonation of the test bomb?
It is not clear whether Trump means a real bomb test or missile tests. It could take years before a real bomb test is carried out, because infrastructure and resources are currently lacking, and domestic political pressure and possibly also global pressure are likely to be very high.
How much does a nuclear test cost?
Several hundred million USD are expected for simple bomb tests. Money is always limited. This is another reason why comprehensive simulations are common practice today.
What does the USA gain by carrying out one or more nuclear tests?
Nothing. It's just symbolic politics, but effective symbolic politics. America can show supposed strength, signal its readiness for action and counter Putin's constant flirtation with the nuclear option. Trump may want us to be more afraid of him than of Putin.
However, neither the infrastructure nor the resources are available today for real bomb tests.
About the person
Remo Reginold is Director of the Swiss Institute for Global Affairs (SIGA). He studied political science, philosophy and theology and has conducted research in France, the UK and the USA.
What reactions do you expect from the other nuclear powers?
Russia and China will sharply criticize this and call it an escalation, although Russia has been toying with the nuclear option for years. They have recently tested a new nuclear-powered missile system, which is not a nuclear bomb test, but is still perceived as a threat.
China is also arming itself with nuclear weapons, but in quantitative terms it is far behind Russia and the USA. China will certainly benefit the most from being able to criticize Trump's great-power airs and graces in global politics.
Do you expect China, Russia or the other nuclear powers to start testing now?
Russia has already escalated rhetorically in the Ukraine war. China is developing modern nuclear weapons. There could already be a small spiral towards tests. But whether there will be nuclear weapons tests again, as we have images in our heads of mushroom clouds over Pacific islands and desert areas, is more than questionable.
Nuclear weapons are weapons of deterrence. The aim is always to avoid having to use them. Will new nuclear tests change this unwritten rule?
No. The deterrent potential already exists today, on a massive scale. There are around 12,000 nuclear warheads worldwide. More than 10,000 of them belong half to the USA and half to Russia. Deterrence and the total destruction of the earth are already possible on several occasions today.
What does Trump's announcement of new nuclear tests mean for the security of the world?
Either way, the world order is changing and the current security and global economic order is shifting in favor of Asia. Perhaps the USA and Russia are the slow losers in this and are trying to use old rhetoric to delay the decline for as long as possible, with all possible collateral damage.