This horror scenario threatens Switzerland - and this is how Trump could still be appeased

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• Switzerland is trying at the last minute to avert the threat of US tariffs of 39 percent from Thursday through negotiations in Washington.
• According to economics professor Hans Gerbach, the tariffs could cause massive damage to the Swiss economy.
• Negotiation expert Frédéric Mathier criticizes the Federal Council's strategy to date and recommends using Trump's media-driven power play in a more emotionally intelligent way.

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Will the tariff hammer come or not? President Karin Keller-Sutter and Economics Minister Guy Parmelin are currently in Washington trying to save what can still be saved.

There is not much time left: on Thursday, the 39% tariff imposed by US President Donald Trump on Swiss imports to the USA is due to come into force. The aim of the Swiss delegation is now to "make the USA a more attractive offer".

If this is not successful, the consequences would be fatal: "According to our calculations, the Swiss economy will shrink by at least 0.3 percent as a result of the US tariffs," says Hans Gersbach, professor of economics and co-director of the Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich.

Threat of loss of prosperity

The actual damage could even be significantly higher. "Such high tariffs put a massive strain on business relationships between Swiss companies and US companies," says Gersbach. Many partnerships are likely to suffer or have to be terminated altogether.

Gersbach warns: "If important supply chains also collapse, gross domestic product could even fall twice as much - by 0.6 percent." This would correspond to a loss of prosperity of almost 600 francs per capita.

Pharmaceutical industry as a bone of contention

The machinery industry, manufacturers of appliances, electronic devices and precision instruments and the watch industry would be the hardest hit by the tariffs. However, the tariff hammer could soon also hit Switzerland's largest export sector, the pharmaceutical industry. Donald Trump has announced punitive tariffs of up to 250 percent on imported medicines.

According to Gersbach, the existing tariff rate would also cause major damage: "If tariffs of 39% were also imposed on exports of medicines, the economy would shrink by at least another 0.7%." The decline in economic output could then amount to more than one percent of GDP. "With tariffs on pharmaceutical products, there is also a risk that Switzerland could slide into recession."

However, the economist advises against Switzerland taking countermeasures: "It doesn't make sense, as Switzerland would operate in complete isolation with such measures and would only lose out in view of the economic and technological balance of power."

"Anyone who wants to convince Trump with facts is playing chess"

How did it get this far in the first place? For negotiation expert Frédéric Mathier, Karin Keller-Sutter has so far opted for the wrong strategy: "Anyone who wants to convince Trump with facts is playing chess - while he has long been sitting at the poker table." Trump doesn't want to be lectured, he wants a stage.

The US President is known for his brash negotiating style.

Keystone

"If you don't give him the feeling that he's the boss in the room, he immediately shuts down," says Mathier. That's why we need fewer paragraphs and more psychology. "Or in other words: Less federal Bern, more Beverly Hills."

Especially as Trump is not negotiating, but staging. "For him, every conversation is a stage, every deal a showdown," says Mathier. The US president uses power, media and momentum like a director. Facts? "Only interfere with the script."

Deadlines as a threat

According to the expert, Trump's negotiating strategy can be reduced to "win or lose". Specifically: "Dominance, speed, pressure - whatever the cost."

Trump also often works with deadlines and threats. "That's his classic means of exerting pressure," explains Mathier. He uses them to create fear - "and fear makes people compliant". He uses it to test his opponent's pain threshold: if you cave in, you lose. Those who stay cool and counterattack gain respect.

You can only negotiate with Trump if you understand his rules of the game. Mathier: "Trump needs a deal where he wins." The trick: "Give him the media triumph - but make sure you get what you need in the small print." If both are right, the deal is perfect.

More emotional intelligence and less bureaucracy are now required from the delegation led by Federal Councillors Keller-Sutter and Parmelin. It remains to be seen to what extent this will succeed. The entire country and the economy in particular are awaiting the result with concern.

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