3 points This is why Trump's Golden Dome is a dangerous idea
Donald Trump wants to use the Golden Dome to protect the USA from missile attacks. But it could backfire: The project jeopardizes the balance of power and offers no ultimate security.
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- Donald Trump wants to build the Golden Dome in three years to protect the USA from missile attacks.
- This goes hand in hand with a militarization of space, which is currently prohibited by treaty. The reason: if missiles are shot down in space, the debris creates lasting problems.
- Balance of terror: Until now, nuclear weapons have prevented nuclear powers from attacking each other. If this balance is altered by a new defense, an arms race will begin.
- Even if Trump relies on conventional technology, there will not be enough production to bring up the system in three years. And even then, the technology can simply be overloaded.
Donald Trump announced to the world on 20 May that he wants to build the Golden Dome: 25 billion out of a total of 175 billion have been earmarked in his budget for the missile defense system, which is to be built within three years.
Like Israel's Iron Dome in Israel, the shield is intended to protect the USA from missile attacks - the new system will even intercept hypersonic missiles that travel at over 6,200 kilometers per hour.
That sounds pretty good at first, but at second glance Trump's plan has its pitfalls. These reasons speak against the project.
Militarization of space
Trump has announced that generic missiles are to be detected from space. This makes sense: these missiles are easiest to detect and neutralize during the launch phase.
But according to the 78-year-old, the missiles should also be fought in space - and that would open up a whole new chapter in warfare. Until now, the militarization of space has been taboo. The topic first arose during the Cold War, when missiles were developed that could shoot down satellites.
The problem: if missiles are destroyed in zero gravity, a cloud of debris forms that orbits the earth and whose small parts threaten to damage other satellites. The superpowers therefore ratified the Outer Space Treaty in the 1960s, which prohibits the militarization of space.
According to the treaty, states are also liable for damage caused by objects they put into space. The agreement would become null and void if Trump builds the Golden Dome as he has announced.
Balance of terror
Actually, the USA already has a Golden Dome: America's defensive shield is its nuclear arsenal. Until now, a nuclear attack on the United States was out of the question because it would trigger a counter-attack that could wipe out the country.
Mutual Assured Destruction is the name of the concept - aptly abbreviated to MAD. This balance of terror thrives on the fact that the side that starts a nuclear war is guaranteed to be destroyed itself. Because the powers in question have several times the capacity to destroy the world with nuclear weapons, it is not worth attacking them - even if part of their arsenal is hit in a first strike.
A 2009 study concludes that nuclear weapons promote strategic stability and prevent major wars. However, this does not apply to low-intensity conflicts. If one state has nuclear weapons and the other does not, the probability of war increases after an escalation.
If the nuclear power USA were to change the balance of terror by making itself unassailable for nuclear missiles, other states would have to rearm. The consequences are hardly foreseeable: Another system could be invented to deliver nuclear weapons to their target - or an entirely new type of weapon of mass destruction.
One example of this is Israel's Iron Dome, which was unable to prevent Hamas terrorists from flying across the border on October 7, 2023 with paragliders to commit murder.
Production limits and overloading
The Golden Dome relies on future technology that has not even been tested yet. But even if you take what is already on the market, Trump's missile shield is not a good idea, explains military expert Ryan McBeth. And the whole thing cannot be achieved in three years, even with conventional means.
The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is currently being used to intercept enemy intercontinental missiles. It covers a range of 200 kilometers and costs one to two billion dollars. According to McBeth, if the batteries were only placed on the edge of the USA, around 37 such units would be needed.
If you estimate one billion per system and keep some in the back pocket - for maintenance or gaps in the defense shield - you end up with a cost of 37 to 74 billion dollars, which you have to deduct from the 175 billion that Trump estimates for the Golden Dome.
"If you use existing technology, you can do it in theory," explains the US veteran. In practice, however, things would be tight: To build a radar for the Patriot air defense system, you would have to wait two years for the parts to assemble it in one year, says McBeth.
It is therefore not realistic to set up 37 THAAD systems or an equivalent within three years. At best, an area such as the west coast of the USA could be covered in this time. However, the protection is not watertight: a THAAD battery has 48 missiles. If 49 projectiles are fired, the interception system will be overloaded.
