"Then it gets ugly" Trump already has several big problems in Iran

The war in Iran is not going Donald Trump's way. Despite recent threats from the US president, the Mullah regime remains steadfast. According to experts, Iran is in control - and Trump has more than one problem.

Donald Trump has proclaimed victory in the war against Iran more than once. But the reality is different: Less than a month after the first attack by the USA and Israel, the mullahs' regime is still proving resilient.

"They've done pretty well with their obvious countermeasures," Gregory Treverton, a professor at the University of Southern California, told Newsweek. "So in a sense, they are actually in control of the war." Contrary to Trump's narrative that the US has sovereignty over the war, Treverton believes that it is a war "that they [Iran] can end when they want to".

The US president 's recent claim in one of his posts on his social media platform Truth Social that Iran has been "wiped out" militarily and has "zero chance of a return" seems correspondingly unrealistic. If the Iranian regime did not give in to the US demands soon, "things would get ugly", the US president threatened.

USA mobilizes troops

The fact that he also disparaged the Iranian negotiators as "different and strange" during the current attempts at talks in Pakistan does not necessarily give hope for a de-escalating outcome to the talks. Iran is even denying concrete negotiations. If no agreement can be reached, Donald Trump may only have one option: military escalation.

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"Iran's retaliatory measures have clearly led to a more difficult situation than the United States had expected," confirms Jonathan Panikoff, former deputy national intelligence officer for the Middle East at the National Intelligence Council.

One thing is certain: The USA is currently increasing its presence in the Middle East. Thousands of new soldiers have been deployed, fueling speculation about a possible US invasion. They could be deployed around the Strait of Hormuz. This is precisely the important passageway for the global economy where Iran is now trying to tighten the thumbscrews with a two million dollar transit fee.

White House threatens: "Trump is ready to unleash hell"

"In my opinion, the situation is bound to develop quite dramatically in one way or another fairly soon," Treverton says, referring to several problems facing the USA. Weapons are running out, as is the patience of allies. The USA is also feeling the effects of a looming global economic crisis.

The message sent by press spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday was correspondingly unmistakable. She called on Iran to "give up its nuclear ambitions for good and stop actively threatening America and our allies".

If the regime does not give in, the White House threatened further escalation. "President Trump is not bluffing, and he is ready to unleash hell," Leavitt said.

Expert sees Iranian armed forces intact

However, experts do not currently consider it realistic that Iran will give in. Recent statements by Abbas Araghchi fit in with this. According to the Iranian foreign minister, the country not only controls the Strait of Hormuz. Araghchi also referred to the lack of support for the war from international partners, saying that the USA had succeeded in discrediting its credibility.

"Iran is trying to deal a decisive blow to the aggressor states in order to underpin its deterrent power," Ali Bagheri Dolatabadi, professor at Yasouj University in the Iranian capital Tehran, told "Newsweek". Although the US has eliminated Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khameneiand some leading commanders, the armed forces are still intact.

"Iran had already prepared for this situation and introduced a kind of decentralized system," Dolatabadi explains. Former US military analyst Michael Eisenstadt takes a similar view. Thanks to good preparation, Iran has been able to withstand military strikes by its opponents.

Impending global recession as the "greatest challenge"

The regime's aim now is to survive the war "with considerable remaining military capacities". At the same time, the aim is to inflict "the greatest possible damage on the United States and Israel - and if necessary also on the global economy", Eisenstadt explains. The aim is to provide additional deterrence against future attacks.

Meanwhile, the USA is faced with the challenge of "ensuring that the region's oil and gas reaches the market in order to avoid a global recession". According to Eisenstadt, this is the "biggest challenge of the coming days".

The question remains as to whether an escalation brought about by the US could really break the will of the Iranian regime. "I don't see how an operation on Kharg Island or a similar action is going to change the course of the war," says Nate Wanson, who once sat on the National Security Council, attesting to the stability of the current regime.

So it seems to be Donald Trump who is under pressure to act. In a study published on Tuesday, the approval ratings of US citizens for Trump fell to a record low since his second inauguration. Only 36% are satisfied with the president's policies. Among other things, increased fuel prices are causing frustration - just one aspect of the increasingly loud criticism of Trump's currently most important mission: the war against Iran.

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