Clear-cut - or not Trump is clearly ahead of Harris - is this a landslide victory?
In the early hours of the morning, Donald Trump is clearly ahead of Kamala Harris. What this means for the outcome of the election - blue News explains.
No time? blue News summarizes for you
- In the early hours of the morning, Donald Trump is clearly ahead of Kamala Harris.
- But this is not a landslide victory, it's completely normal.
- blue News explains why.
In the early hours of election night, Republican candidate Donald Trump is showing a clear lead over Democratic challenger Kamala Harris.
However, such an initial picture is by no means unusual, but results from factors specific to the US electoral system and regional vote counts. blue News explains why Trump's current lead was to be expected and how the picture may change as the count progresses.
Republican strongholds count out quickly
The first polling stations traditionally close in the states of Indiana and Kentucky, which are considered Republican strongholds. This means that the earliest results often come from states where Trump has a clear lead.
Indiana and Kentucky are reliably Republican states, so the vote count here starts early in the evening and quickly shows an advantage for Trump. These "red" states often provide the first results, boosting the Republican presence early. In fact, the "red" states that have already been counted are hardly surprising, but expected.
Republican strongholds like Indiana and Kentucky historically tend to be counted early. Since their polls close first, they often provide early results in favor of Republicans before states that tend to be more Democratic start reporting their results. This pattern leads to an early Republican lead in almost every election, which is often later offset by votes in Democratic strongholds.
In-person voting vs. absentee voting
Another factor in Trump's initial lead is the order in which the votes are counted. In many states, votes cast in person on Election Day are counted first, which are usually dominated by Republican voters.
In contrast, Democratic voters are more likely to cast their ballots by absentee ballot, the counting of which often begins later in the evening or even lasts into the next day. This delay can lead to the Republican candidate's early lead being eroded over the course of the night. Postal voting plays a crucial role, especially in close races, and can still have a significant impact on the election result. This effect is particularly evident in swing states where voters are strongly divided.
As postal votes are often more popular in urban areas and Democratic leaning electorates, it is often only when they are counted that the initial lead changes. Many analysts therefore emphasize that the results of the in-person vote do not reflect the final picture, which often leads to supposedly surprising twists on election night.
In the end, the swing states decide
The outcome of the US election is traditionally decided by the so-called swing states - states that cannot be clearly assigned to either the Democrats or the Republicans and therefore have the power to tilt the election result.
In these states, including Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, the race is usually extremely close and it can take until the next day for the votes to be fully counted. Current interim results are therefore still incomplete and could give the impression of a strong lead for Trump until all votes in these critical states have been counted.
In past elections, it has been shown several times that the trend in swing states often does not change until late at night or the next day. The counting of absentee ballots, which are increasingly being cast in urban, Democratic-leaning areas, can result in an initial lead for Trump slowly shifting to Harris. Therefore, a comprehensive assessment of the election outcome can only be made once all votes in these contested states have been counted.
Parallels with 2020
A similar scenario was seen in the 2020 election, when the Republican candidate's initial lead also dwindled over the course of the night as Democratic strongholds and postal votes were counted later.
This also led to an early dominance of the Republicans in the headlines, but this was later changed by the so-called "blue shift" - the later counting of Democratic votes.
This effect is also likely to be visible in the current election, as many Democratic voters have again cast their votes by postal ballot.
In summary, Trump's current lead in the early count results can be seen as a normal phenomenon in the US electoral system. Given the regional and organizational peculiarities of the system, the final election result will only become clear once the last swing states and postal votes have been counted.
