Swiss economist classifies Trump's customs deal is a success for Switzerland - with a bad aftertaste

The USA is reducing the punitive tariffs on Swiss products. A supposed triumph, but the price for the deal is high. Economist Claude Maurer assesses the situation for blue News.

"We have reached a deal." The words spoken by US trade delegate Jamieson Greer to the business channel CNBC on Friday afternoon (CEST) must have caused many a Swiss company's management to jump for joy. Shortly afterwards, the Federal Council confirmed on Platform X: "US tariffs will be reduced to 15%."

As a reminder: on August 1, on Swiss National Day, US President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs of 39% on Switzerland. According to the Federal Council, the reduction is now thanks to the US President for his "constructive engagement".

But is the exuberant joy justified? "The most important thing is that Swiss companies have the same conditions as their competitors from the EU when it comes to customs duties," says Claude Maurer, Chief Economist at BAK Economics, to blue News.

"A level playing field in a bad game"

According to Maurer, the reduction in tariffs would be a "relief" for Swiss companies. Especially as the export industry was already suffering from the rapid appreciation of the Swiss franc against the dollar. Now, however, they have "practically the same level playing field as comparable companies in the eurozone, albeit in a bad game".

Swiss companies are benefiting from the fact that they are not used to having a competitive price advantage due to the generally strong franc.

The watchmaking, medical, machinery, electrical and metal industries in particular are likely to benefit from lower tariffs, as UBS writes in response to an inquiry from the news agency AWP. EU goods have already been subject to a lower US tariff of 15 percent for several months.

Absurd anchor becomes a success story

According to Maurer, Trump should be praised for his negotiating strategy. He is successfully using the "anchor": starting at 39 percent and withdrawing to 15 percent. "Without the absurd anchor, a figure of 15 percent would never be celebrated as a success," says Maurer. It can therefore also be assumed that the 15 percent tariff will remain permanently.

But the deal comes at a price. According to Greer, Swiss companies will have to relocate certain parts of their production capacities to the USA. According to as yet unconfirmed reports, there is also talk of investment promises amounting to around 200 billion dollars and the procurement of Boeing aircraft.

Too high a price? Maurer puts this into perspective: "Swiss companies are already investing heavily in the US market, so further investments are not out of the question." It remains to be seen how many of these investments are so-called windfall profits - i.e. would have been made even without the tariff dispute - and how much additional money will now actually be spent.