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Report nowOn Donald Trump’s 80th birthday, the U.S. president and Iran announce an agreement on a framework deal to end the war. What happens next—and what could still derail peace.
After weeks of negotiations , the U.S. and Iran have agreed on a framework deal to end the war. This was confirmed not only by the U.S. government and Iran but also by the mediator, Pakistan. The agreement, announced on U.S. President Donald Trump’s 80th birthday, is intended to lay the groundwork for further negotiations, which will focus on issues such as Tehran’s nuclear program. Just a few hours earlier, the war had threatened to escalate further.
Anti-American propaganda on the wall of the former U.S. Embassy—now a museum—in Tehran. (June 12, 2026)
Image: Keystone/AP Photo/Vahid Salemi
Not much is known about the framework agreement yet—the exact wording has not been published. The agreement is set to be signed on Friday in Geneva, Switzerland. While Europeans led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz are offering their assistance in the Strait of Hormuz, experts warn against premature optimism. The agreement is merely an intermediate step in a diplomatic process that still faces its greatest hurdles ahead.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated on Platform X that both sides had agreed to the immediate and definitive cessation of military operations on all fronts. This also applies to the conflict between Israel and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.
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The Strait of Hormuz was also at the center of the negotiations. The strait, which is vital for global oil and gas trade, will not be reopened to shipping until after the agreement is signed on Friday, as Trump announced in a second post. In his initial announcement, it had sounded as though it would be opened immediately. The U.S. president cited necessary mine-clearing operations as the reason.
Oil prices, which had skyrocketed after the war began in late February, nevertheless fell significantly shortly after the agreement was announced. Stock prices also rose immediately after the markets opened in the morning in Japan, China, and South Korea.
In exchange for Iran’s promised concession regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Trump stated that he had ordered the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. With this blockade, the U.S. had sought to cut Tehran off from vital revenue from oil exports—the most economically important pillar of the Islamist regime. This fulfilled one of the Iranians’ main demands, while the U.S. must wait until Friday for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened.
The U.S. government plans to be represented at the highest level at the signing ceremony in Switzerland. “I definitely intend to be there, but it’s also possible that the president himself will be there,” Vice President JD Vance told Fox News. Given standard security protocols, it is considered unlikely that both Vance and Trump will travel abroad. Trump is already traveling to Lake Geneva this week for the G7 summit scheduled for Monday through Wednesday in Évian, France.
It is not yet known who will be present on the Iranian side. Karim Sadjadpour, a political scientist at the Carnegie think tank, expects either the Speaker of Parliament and chief negotiator Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf or Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “But I doubt the Iranian regime is looking for a photo op with hugs and smiles,” he told CNN. “This is a regime that remains deeply offended.”
In Syria, too, debris fell following clashes between Iran and Israel at the beginning of last week. (File photo)
Image: Keystone
The agreement is intended to be merely the foundation for further negotiations, such as those regarding Tehran’s nuclear program—arguably the most critical issue from the perspective of the U.S. government and its ally Israel. And even if it holds, the most difficult questions remain unresolved, as Richard Fontaine of the Center for a New American Security think tank pointed out. In addition to the nuclear program, these include support for Iranian allies in the region and how to deal with Iran’s missile and drone arsenal. The issues left out of the framework agreement are precisely those that led to the war in the first place, he wrote on the platform X.
The preliminary agreement is therefore by no means the end of the war, not even “the beginning of the end.” However, it could be a first step in the right direction, Fontaine believes.
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Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie think tank also said he does not yet see the agreement as the end of the war. Above all, the war in Lebanon will remain a source of tension, he told CNN. Peace efforts are complicated by the strained relationship between the two countries. Regarding the leadership in Tehran, he said: “This is a regime that remains deeply offended.”
Following the agreement, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy declared their readiness to support the resumption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This also includes “a purely defensive, independent mission to encourage commercial shipping and conduct mine clearance,” stated Chancellor Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in a joint statement.
Merz called for a “determined” implementation of the agreement. “Further negotiations in the coming weeks must ensure that Iran verifiably ends its military nuclear program.” There must also be no further attacks against Israel and other neighbors in the region.
In the hours leading up to the announcement, the deal had once again been hanging in the balance. This was triggered by renewed mutual attacks in the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. An attack on northern Israel was followed on Sunday afternoon by an Israeli counterattack in the suburbs of Beirut. Trump subsequently cautioned Israel and called on all sides to exercise restraint.
According to Vice President Vance, indications were mounting at that time that Iran was preparing a major attack on Israel. However, during the talks, they succeeded in dissuading Tehran from a counterattack and instead reached the agreement, he told Fox News.
Following the Israeli attacks near Beirut, Iran had called into question the possibility of reaching an agreement with the U.S. The Iranian Revolutionary Guards—the Islamic Republic’s elite force—threatened Israel with counterattacks. The Israeli army announced late in the afternoon that it was preparing for possible shelling of Israeli territory in the coming hours.
A key condition for Iran in the agreement with the U.S. was an end to military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon. Tehran had repeatedly emphasized that it was not prepared to continue the diplomatic process without the fulfillment of this demand.
15.06.2026, 07:22
15.06.2026, 07:26
