National economy Economic outlook deteriorates massively with US tariff hammer
The economic environment in Switzerland has deteriorated significantly following the high US tariffs imposed on Swiss goods around three weeks ago.
27.08.2025, 10:54
SDA
Financial analysts surveyed by the major bank UBS assess the economic outlook as much worse than it was around a month ago.
The CFA indicator, which is compiled as part of the monthly survey conducted by UBS, plummeted to -53.8 points in August, compared to 2.4 points in July, when it was still in positive territory. "This indicates a sharp deterioration in analysts' economic outlook", UBS stated in a press release on Wednesday.
The big bank sees the introduction of the US tariff of 39 percent on Swiss exports as the main reason for this. According to the information, nine out of ten analysts now expect the momentum of Swiss exports to deteriorate over the next six months. The corresponding indicator fell by 54.7 points to -89.8 points.
In the history of the index, such a significant decline has only occurred in the case of drastic events, such as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) lifting the minimum exchange rate in 2015, the Covid-19-related escalations in 2020 and 2021 or the US tariff announcement last April.
In all of these cases, however, the downturns were partially offset in the following month: on average, there was an increase of almost 40 points in each case.
Deterioration in the global economy also expected
The analysts' assessment of the economic outlook is not only worse for Switzerland, but also worldwide. Compared to the July survey, fewer respondents said that the outlook in the USA, the eurozone and China would improve over the next six months. However, most analysts still rated the situation in all four regions as "normal".
With regard to monetary policy in Switzerland, just under two thirds of the 52 respondents expect the SNB to keep its key interest rate stable over the next twelve months. Just under a quarter of those surveyed expect the key interest rate to be lowered by 25 basis points at the SNB's December meeting. A larger cut of 50 basis points or a rate hike are considered unlikely, according to the report.
The political developments in the USA have also led many investors to rethink their investment strategies. Seven out of ten of those surveyed in August stated that they would reduce their investments in US dollar bonds. Over half were also thinking about reducing their cash in dollars. According to the survey, almost half also want to reduce investments in US equities.
