Australia USA: Ceasefire in Gaza depends on Hamas leader Sinwar

While the USA is pushing for a de-escalation in the conflict between Iran and Israel, the appointment of Israel's number one public enemy as leader of Hamas is complicating efforts to achieve a ceasefire in the Gaza war.

The appointment of Jihia al-Sinwar is "another compelling reason to remove him quickly and eradicate this vile organization from the face of the earth", wrote Israel's Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Platform X.

According to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however, it depends largely on Sinwar whether an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza can be reached. The former leader of the Islamists in the Gaza Strip had been Hamas' key decision-maker on this issue even before his appointment as successor to the slain Hamas foreign chief Ismail Haniya, said Blinken. "This only underlines the fact that it is really up to him to decide whether a ceasefire will be promoted."

Sinwar is considered the mastermind behind the terror attack by Hamas and other groups in Israel on October 7, 2023, in which around 1,200 people were killed and 250 others were abducted in the Gaza Strip. The unprecedented attack triggered the Gaza war.

Report: Sinwar in favor of close coordination with Iran

With Sinwar's appointment as its sole leader, Hamas is sending the message "that it is strategically behind the armed resistance approach", the Wall Street Journal quoted Jehad Harb, a political analyst at the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, a think tank based in the West Bank. This means that Hamas is moving away from its role as a political entity that wants to govern, the US newspaper wrote. Sinwar also advocates close coordination with Hamas supporter Iran, which denies Israel's right to exist. He appears to have trumped those voices in Hamas that were skeptical of the approach.

Sinwar's predecessor Haniya, who was killed in Tehran just under a week ago, resided in Qatar's capital Doha and was regarded as Hamas' chief diplomat. Iran and Hamas hold Israel responsible for Haniya's death and are threatening to retaliate harshly against the Jewish state.

Blinken warns of escalation

Blinken warned urgently against an escalation of the conflict. Everyone in the region should understand "that further attacks will only increase the risk of dangerous consequences that no one can predict and no one can fully control," said the US Secretary of State during a joint appearance before the press with his Australian counterpart Penny Wong and the defense ministers of both countries in the US state of Maryland.

The "decisive moment" had been reached in the indirect negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza, in which Qatar, Egypt and the USA are mediating, said Blinken. "We firmly believe that they should be concluded very, very soon," he said. As before, Sinwar has the power to decide whether Hamas agrees.

Report: Sinwar is counting on victory

It is suspected that Sinwar is hiding in one of Hamas' tunnels under the Gaza Strip, which is sealed off by Israel. He is betting that Hamas will achieve victory by surviving as a group, wrote the Wall Street Journal. Sinwar has resisted pressure to agree to a ceasefire and a hostage agreement and has told mediators that the deaths of Palestinian civilians are to his advantage. "We have the Israelis exactly where we want them," Sinwar told Hamas representatives who wanted to negotiate an agreement with Qatari and Egyptian representatives.

In May, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court in The Hague applied for an arrest warrant against Sinwar, Hanija and Sinwar's former deputy Mohammed Deif. He accused them of "extermination", murder, hostage-taking, rape and torture as crimes against humanity.

Sinwar's former deputy Deif, head of the military wing of Hamas, was the target of an Israeli missile attack in July. Last week, the Israeli army declared him dead. The Israeli leadership has not yet commented on Haniya's death in the Iranian capital Tehran.

Blinken: Nobody wants an escalation

In view of the threat of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies against Israel, there is great concern about an escalation in the entire region. The USA is continuing to work intensively to defuse the situation and is in constant contact with partners in the region and beyond, said Blinken. "I don't think anybody really wants an escalation, nobody wants an escalation of the conflict, but it's very important that it could happen, even if it's unintentional."

At the same time, Blinken reaffirmed Israel's "ironclad" support for self-defense. The US military is also continuing to take steps to fend off an escalation by Iran and its allies, said US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

Austin referred to the recent attack on a military base in Iraq, in which several US soldiers were wounded. "So make no mistake: the United States will not tolerate attacks on our personnel in the region," the US Secretary of Defense emphasized. The military presence in the region had been adjusted in order to strengthen the protection of its own armed forces and remain prepared for all conceivable scenarios. Austin also emphasized the USA's support for Israel's defence.

Biden also mediates

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden spoke separately on the phone with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani. The talks also covered the negotiations on a hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, which had "now reached a final phase", the White House announced. The parties agreed that this process must be completed "as quickly as possible".