USA, Israel and Kurds: Is a ground offensive coming in Iran?

Around a week after the start of the war, there are now - sometimes contradictory - indications that there could also be a ground offensive. This is possibly to be led by Kurdish fighters from neighboring Iraq, supported by the warring parties USA and Israel. The most important questions:

Who could send fighters for a ground offensive in Iran?

For some days now, the focus has been on the Kurds - an ethnic group with an estimated 30 million members who live mainly in Iraq, Iran, Syria and Turkey. Many Iranian Kurds live in neighboring Iraq due to systematic persecution in their homeland, where the group enjoys more rights in an autonomous region around Erbil. Some now see an opportunity to overthrow Iran's government and gain more protection and freedoms in a possible new government there too.

US President Donald Trump has already spoken to several Kurdish leaders on the phone in recent days. According to some reports, the US intelligence agency CIA began supplying Kurdish groups in the region with weapons months ago. Officially, the White House rejects these reports as false.

Would the Kurds be ready for such plans?

For the Iranian Kurds in Iraq, an armed march across the border carries enormous risks. "They will be executed if (the plan) fails," Kurdish analyst Mutlu Civiroglu told the Jerusalem Post. It initially remained unclear how many Iranian Kurds could be involved.

The Iraqi Kurds are also distancing themselves from the plans. They have painstakingly built up their autonomous region after the harshest oppression - tens of thousands of Kurds were systematically killed in Iraq during the dictatorship of former ruler Saddam Hussein. There would be a threat of conflict between supporters of an invasion and Iraqi Kurdish leaders who want to remain neutral and not jeopardize their achievements. And even without the question of a ground offensive, there are already divisions, rivalries and power struggles within the Kurdish groups.

What is the Kurds' relationship with the USA like?

The relationship with Washington was and is also characterized by many tensions. After cooperating with the USA before and during the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) terrorist militia in Iraq and Syria, many Kurds felt betrayed because Washington withdrew its support after the missions ended.

"Leave the Kurds alone. We are not weapons for hire," said Shanas Ibrahim Ahmed, Kurdish woman and wife of Iraqi President Abdel Latif Rashid. However, some Kurds also see many advantages in receiving weapons and political capital from the USA.

How could a Kurdish offensive in Iran work?

Thousands of Kurdish fighters are already stationed along the 1,500-kilometer border with Iran. These could advance into Iran with the help of US and Israeli air strikes. Trump has promised the Kurdish leaders "extensive US protection from the air", reported the Washington Post, citing insiders. Israel's air force has already bombed military, border and police posts in western Iran, which could pave the way for an advance.

The problem, however, is that the Kurdish-Iranian groups "are not strong enough militarily and could become cannon fodder", a US government representative told the website "Axios". Even with parallel air strikes by Israel and the USA and with their intelligence information, it is completely open how quickly and how far Kurdish fighters could advance in the mountains of western Iran. Such a battle could drag on for weeks or even months - the outcome is uncertain. In addition, Iran has hundreds of thousands of security forces at its disposal who have so far been loyal to the leadership in Tehran.

How could Iran react to such an invasion of the West?

Iran's armed forces have been preparing for just such a scenario for decades. The country's military doctrine was significantly shaped by the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988), a war of attrition with heavy losses that still determines strategic thinking in Tehran today. Instead of traditional battles on the front, Iran also relies on asymmetric defense: Guerrilla tactics, decentralized command structures and the mobilization of paramilitary forces are intended to force an attacker into a protracted war with heavy losses.

Iran is more than four times the size of Germany. The country has a population of around 90 million and is home to numerous ethnic minorities, including Kurds, Baluchis and Turkic-speaking Azeris. Many of them live in the border provinces. Tensions and separatist movements are therefore not a new phenomenon for the leadership in Tehran. Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, the state has ruled in a centralized manner and relies on a massive security apparatus that cracks down on protest and armed resistance, particularly in the peripheral regions.

What are the conceivable consequences of a ground offensive?

Many Iranians are worried about a fragmentation of the country and a civil war in view of the news about a possible ground offensive, writes the American-Iranian historian Arash Azizi in an article for the US magazine "The Atlantic".

A ground offensive with the help of ethnic militias could also trigger a backlash. Many Iranians, including opponents of the authoritarian leadership, could put the country's territorial unity above political differences and unite against separatists. At the same time, observers warn of possible ethnic conflicts within the border regions themselves, for example between Kurds and other groups.

"Promoting an armed ethnic insurgency in Iran would be the mother of all strategic, moral and political mistakes," said analyst Behnam Ben Taleblu in the article. "It would almost certainly end in a failed state."

At the same time, Iran could attack Iraq in order to fend off a Kurdish advance. This would threaten a new escalation in the neighboring country if militias loyal to Iran tried to stop a Kurdish offensive against Tehran. In addition, Turkey, which has long been fighting groups with links to the banned Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), could also launch its own offensive similar to the one in Syria or attempt to establish a buffer zone in Iran.

Could the USA or Israel send ground troops into Iran?

According to official US government statements, it doesn't look like it at the moment. Ground troops are "not currently part of the plan", said government spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt. However, Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are not ruling out the use of ground troops, although the American public is particularly sensitive to the issue after the long and costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It is considered extremely unlikely that Israel's army would send large numbers of ground troops into the territory of its arch-enemy Iran, some 2,000 kilometers away. Such a deployment would involve too many risks for the small country of Israel. At most, selective deployments of elite troops for special tasks would be conceivable. According to the army, Israeli commandos were also deployed on the ground during the twelve-day war with Iran last June.