Politics USA: War between Israel and Hezbollah is avoidable
While diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah are in full swing, talks on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip are being hampered by mutual accusations of blockade by the warring parties.
30.07.2024, 04:52
SDA
"We believe there is still time and space for a diplomatic solution," said John Kirby, Communications Director of the US National Security Council, referring to the tense situation.
Following the devastating rocket attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, which killed twelve children and young people, fears of a major war are growing. Hezbollah, which says it wants to force Israel into a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip out of solidarity with the Islamist Hamas, is on alert. Should an attack occur, Hezbollah circles say they will strike back. According to Israeli media, Israel's response is likely to be significant but limited.
Signs of an accidental missile strike
The US government held intensive discussions with various actors over the weekend, said Kirby. "Based on the conversations we've had, we don't believe this has to lead to an escalation or a broader war." Such a scenario is avoidable, he said.
The Israeli government blames the Shia militia Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran, for the rocket attack on the Golan and is preparing a retaliatory strike. The US government also attributed the attack to Hezbollah.
"The attack was carried out by the Lebanese Hezbollah, even if they deny it," said Kirby. The rocket had been fired from an area controlled by the militia. He emphasized that Israel had the right to defend itself and that the country had to decide for itself how to react. "But we do not believe that this attack at the weekend - as terrible as it was - must lead to an escalation or a greater risk of war." Such predictions are exaggerated.
There are indications that Hezbollah may have struck the village of Majdal Shams, which is mainly inhabited by Arabic-speaking Druze, by mistake. "The assumption of a misguided missile is much more credible than Hezbollah deciding to attack a football pitch," Eli Hanna, a Lebanese ex-general, told the newspaper "L'Orient-Le Jour". This is also supported by the fact that the militia claimed responsibility for several other attacks against Israeli military targets in the vicinity on the same day.
Netanyahu: Our response will be tough
Late on Sunday evening, Israel's Security Cabinet authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Joav Galant to decide on the further course of action against Hezbollah. Netanyahu said during a visit to the site where the rocket hit that Israel could not go back to business as usual after the attack. "Our response will come, and it will be harsh," said the 74-year-old.
At the same time, by all indications, neither side seems interested in significantly escalating the fierce fighting that has been going on for almost ten months. More than 100 civilians and 360 Hezbollah members have been killed on the Lebanese side, while around 20 soldiers and more than 20 civilians have been killed on the Israeli side. 150,000 people on both sides of the border had to leave their homes. The US news portal "Axios" quoted Israeli officials as saying that Israel's security cabinet and military were in favor of "a much stronger response to Hezbollah than anything seen before", but not a major war.
Report: Fierce fighting would be difficult to contain
The US government had warned Israel that if Hezbollah fired on the Lebanese capital Beirut, the situation would "likely spiral out of control", Axios reported, citing an Israeli and a US official. According to the Israeli military, a strong Israeli response would probably lead to several days of high-intensity fighting that would be difficult to contain, wrote the well-connected Israeli journalist Barak Ravid. "It is clear that both sides will go a step further than before, but it is not clear whether they can avoid falling into the abyss," Ravid quoted an Israeli official as telling "Axios".
Hamas, meanwhile, has rejected Israel's latest proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages in its custody. According to Telegram, Israel's prime minister had deviated from his own previous positions and those of the mediators by making new demands. "Netanyahu has once again returned to a strategy of procrastination, delay and evasion of an agreement."
Hamas and Israel accuse each other of obstructionism
Netanyahu denied having set new conditions. "Israel has neither changed the draft (for an agreement) nor added any conditions," the head of government announced via his office. Rather, it is the Hamas leadership that is preventing an agreement. As Hamas and Israel are not negotiating directly with each other, Qatar, Egypt and the USA are acting as mediators between the two warring parties.
However, the talks have been very sluggish for months. Since May, they have revolved around a multi-stage plan by US President Joe Biden, which ultimately envisages a permanent ceasefire. In addition, the hostages held by Hamas are to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
Most recently, Netanyahu formulated additional conditions that were included in Israel's submitted proposal. These aim to ensure that Israel retains control of strategic zones in the Gaza Strip even after a ceasefire comes into force. Netanyahu's office announced on Sunday evening that talks on the main issues would continue in the coming days.
"We don't want the war to escalate," Kirby said. Referring to the situation between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah militia in the border area between the two countries, the communications director of the US National Security Council added: "We don't want a second front to be opened there in the north."
