Five lessons for Taiwan What China is learning about the US military and itself in the Iran war
Beijing is observing the Iran war very closely. China is trying to derive operational lessons from it - especially with regard to the US military. Many analysts see this as preparation for possible Taiwan scenarios.
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- For the first time in a long time, the war against Iran provides China with a "live laboratory" to observe modern US warfare under real conditions.
- The war is showing Beijing that even highly equipped armed forces can come under pressure from swarms of drones and massive missile attacks.
- At the same time, China recognizes that technological superiority alone does not guarantee victory and that political goals can remain unattainable despite military successes.
After more than ten weeks, there is no end in sight to the war between the USA and Israel against Iran: Donald Trump is threatening, Iran is verbally countering and is otherwise unimpressed, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a bone of contention.
While the Western world is increasingly having to deal with the economic consequences, China is using the Iran war as a practical object lesson - as a kind of "live laboratory" to observe modern US warfare under real conditions. Beijing's military strategists see the war between the USA and Iran as a possible training scenario for a future conflict over Taiwan.
Every drone, every missile and every weakness of Western air defenses is analyzed in detail. The war not only provides China with military insights - but possibly a glimpse into the future of global power struggles, reports CNN, citing experts from China, Taiwan and the USA. These are the five most important findings.
The USA is more militarily vulnerable than assumed
The Iran war shows China how American weapons and defense systems actually work when used in an emergency. Beijing can observe that even the highly developed US armed forces have problems protecting themselves against asymmetric attacks with large quantities of cheap drones and missiles.
According to the Washington Post, attacks on US bases and ships in the Middle East have resulted in considerable damage and high air defense costs. The conclusion for Beijing: American forces in the Pacific could also be overwhelmed by "saturation attacks".
China sees its own strengths confirmed
China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is investing heavily in hypersonic weapons, stealth aircraft, long-range missiles and drone technology. Experts believe that drone swarms and precision missiles would play a key role in a possible attack on Taiwan.
China also has enormous industrial capacity and could quickly convert civilian factories to mass produce military drones (one billion per year). Taiwan, on the other hand, fears that its current anti-drone systems are not sufficiently prepared for this.
Beijing could overestimate its own capabilities
Despite its technological armament, China could reach its limits in the event of an attack on Taiwan. Unlike the USA, China has not gained any major combat experience since the brief war against Vietnam in 1979.
Analysts therefore warn that modern weapons alone do not guarantee victory. The decisive factor is often the ability to adapt quickly to new situations in an ongoing war. The Korean War is cited as an example, in which experienced American pilots were often more successful than their Chinese opponents despite having technically inferior aircraft.
If the USA and China were to face each other in a military conflict in the coming years, Washington would be able to draw on a large number of personnel who have already been involved in combat operations or planning. The GIs know how to adapt quickly to new situations in war. It remains to be seen whether China's army will be able to do the same in an emergency.
China must strengthen its own defense
The PLA has rapidly expanded its offensive firepower in recent years. For example, the arsenal has been expanded to include missiles with hypersonic gliders that can evade interceptor missiles, as well as the carrier platforms from which these can be fired.
Former Chinese Air Force Colonel Fu Qianshao emphasized to CNN that China must not only develop its offensive weapons, but also strengthen its defence. The US has combined modern weapons such as F-35 jets and B-2 bombers with cheaper, less high-tech guided weapons dropped by B-1s, B-52s and F-15s. With this mix, they have taken out everything in Iran, from missile launchers to warships and bridges.
"We must make considerable efforts," concludes Fu Qianshao, "to uncover weaknesses in our defenses so that we remain invincible in future wars."
But the US military is also learning. Drones make warfare much more costly for the attacking side, explained the head of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Samuel Paparo, at a hearing in the US Senate in April.
In the event of a Chinese invasion, Taiwan or the US could block the Taiwan Strait with thousands of drones to attack Chinese ships or planes carrying potentially hundreds of thousands of People's Liberation Army soldiers.
Military strength does not necessarily lead to the goal
With regard to a possible attack on Taiwan, another lesson from the current Iran war should be of interest to China: military success does not automatically guarantee that its political goals will be achieved. The US has knocked out Iran's air defenses, severely damaged its infrastructure and eliminated the regime's military and political leadership. But the mullahs are still not giving up.
Despite its technological superiority, the USA has not been able to completely prevent important developments - such as disruptions to global trade routes. This is a warning for China: a war over Taiwan would immediately disrupt global supply chains, energy supplies and trade and could be much more uncontrollable than planned.
